2025 US-China Relations Tension Background US Study Abroad Policy Research Report

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.

Question

Executive Summary: What is the overall situation for studying in the United States in 2025 against the backdrop of Sino-US tensions?

AIAIGAnswer

Key Conclusions:
- In 2025, against the backdrop of escalating technological and trade frictions between China and the US, the US continues to tighten controls on Chinese students (primarily undergraduates and master's students) regarding visa duration, background checks, and sensitive fields, citing "national security" reasons.
- The impact chain includes: F-1/J-1 visa validity and processing intensity → identification of sensitive majors/institutions → access to campus research and employment (OPT/H-1B) → overall psychological and economic costs.
- The coping strategies for Chinese students and families focus on: shifting to other countries, avoiding highly sensitive fields, preparing multiple backup plans, utilizing policy support and legal remedies, and rationally assessing benefits/risks.
- The education sector and think tanks worry that excessive restrictions will harm the US higher education ecosystem and innovation capacity; future trends fluctuate among scenarios of "continued tension/partial relaxation/structural changes".

Question

1.1 What key changes have occurred in U.S. student visas for Chinese students since 2018?

AIAIGAnswer

Visa Validity and Stricter Review (Starting 2018):
- From June 2018, F-1 visas for some Chinese graduate students in sensitive fields (such as robotics, advanced manufacturing, aerospace, etc.) were shortened from 5 years to 1 year, requiring annual renewal and repeated security reviews.
- If applicants have associations with entities on the Entity List, additional interagency approvals are needed, and processing can be delayed for months.

Question

1.3 How have the intensity of review and refusal rates evolved?

AIAIGAnswer

Overall Tightening and High Refusal Rates:
- In 2019, the education department issued a study abroad warning: review periods extended, validity shortened, and refusal rates increased; students in science and engineering fields saw a significant rise in Administrative Processing.
- In 2023, the visa refusal rate for Chinese students was approximately 36%, a historical high; cross-party security reviews have become stricter and long-term.

Question

1.5 Key Policy Timeline and Impacts from 2018 to 2025 (Key Points List)

AIAIGAnswer

- 2018-06: Shortened F-1 visa duration for Chinese graduate students in sensitive fields to 1 year; frequent renewals and reviews.
- From 2019: Overall increase in visa review strictness; surge in administrative reviews for interviews and renewals.
- 2020-05: Proclamation 10043 implemented; approximately 1000 Chinese student visas revoked.
- Second half of 2020: Expansion of entity list/export controls; stricter reviews for schools and majors related to aerospace/chips.
- 2025-05: Announced new round of visa restrictions, covering key technology fields and students with party/government backgrounds.
- 2025-06: Resumed visas but required social media accounts/possible password requests; reviews became stricter and more subjective.

Question

2.1 Which 'sensitive majors' does the United States focus on?

AIAIGAnswer

Sensitive Technology Fields (Examples, not an official public list):
- Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning: Neural networks, deep learning, computer vision, NLP, AI chips.
- Aerospace/Advanced Manufacturing: Aircraft and materials, robotics, additive manufacturing (3D printing).
- Semiconductors/Microelectronics: Chip design and manufacturing, integrated circuits, new computing architectures.
- Biotechnology/Medicine: Synthetic biology, genetic engineering, neuroscience, nanobiotechnology, etc.
- Quantum and Encryption: Quantum computing/communication/encryption and sensing.
- Advanced Materials/New Energy: High-performance materials, nuclear engineering, etc.
- Others: PNT positioning and navigation, data analysis, brain-computer interfaces, hypersonics, advanced surveillance, etc.
Impact: Chinese students involved in the above fields are more likely to be subject to enhanced scrutiny, with situations such as shortened visa validity/repeated AP.

Question

2.3 How does 'dual sensitivity' compound into higher risk?

AIAIGAnswer

When a sensitive university background is combined with a sensitive major direction, the probability of visa Check/denial significantly increases; after enrollment, there may also be additional restrictions and audits in areas such as program access, internships/employment.

Question

3.1 What specific difficulties do Chinese undergraduate and graduate students face during the visa application process?

AIAIGAnswer

- Difficulty in scheduling appointments/long waiting times: Periodic suspension or tightening of interviews (e.g., new appointments were frozen in May 2025).
- Frequent administrative reviews: AP cases have significantly increased for science and engineering groups, and renewals for current students are often delayed.
- Port risks: Individual cases have reported visa cancellations or immediate deportation after secondary inspections upon entry.

Question

3.3 What are the 'invisible barriers' during the school phase?

AIAIGAnswer

- Research access restrictions: Projects involving export controls/defense funding may exclude Chinese students.
- Enhanced monitoring of lab/data access; in some scenarios, download/access behaviors are more sensitive.
- Fluctuations in campus atmosphere: Geopolitical tensions combined with social biases lead to an increase in Asian discrimination incidents, affecting safety and mental health.

Question

What are the new changes in economic burden and family concerns?

AIAIGAnswer

- High tuition/living costs combined with exchange rate fluctuations increase family expenses and financial uncertainty.
- Some families are turning to alternative destinations like the UK/Australia/Canada/Singapore due to concerns about safety and mental health.

Question

4.1 What are the trends and reasons for shifting to other study abroad destinations?

AIAIGAnswer

- UK: In the 2022/23 academic year, there were approximately 154,260 Chinese students in the UK, an increase of about 22% compared to 2018/19; PSW reinstated, one-year master's programs offer good value.
- Australia: In 2023/24, about 43,389 new Chinese international students were added; overall, it is open to international students.
- Canada/Singapore, etc.: Attract demand with work/immigration-friendly policies and educational resources.
- USA: Overall growth relies more on Indian student sources; Chinese student numbers have declined since 2019.

Question

4.3 Why is it necessary to prepare multiple Plan Bs? What are the feasible paths?

AIAIGAnswer

- Multi-country applications: Simultaneously apply to UK/Canada/Australia/Hong Kong/Singapore to diversify risks.
- Time buffer: Submit visa applications at least six months in advance, leaving room for re-submission or deferred enrollment during AP; consider processing in a third country if necessary.
- Dual-track preparation: Concurrently prepare for domestic postgraduate entrance exams/employment to reduce losses from 'single-point failure'.

Question

4.5 How to maintain rationality and original intention in the face of adversity?

AIAIGAnswer

- Conduct cost-benefit assessment and bottom-line thinking simultaneously: cherish opportunities, abide by laws and regulations, focus on studies; decisively pivot when the external environment deteriorates.
- Goal remains unchanged, paths are diverse: approach ideals in a more pragmatic and steady manner.

Question

5.1 How do the education sector and think tanks assess the risks of excessive restrictions?

AIAIGAnswer

- Think tanks (such as Carnegie) point out that the security starting point is understandable, but the cumulative effect is excessive or damages the U.S.'s own research and talent pipeline.
- Organizations like IIE/NAFSA emphasize the important contribution of international students (about 1/4 from China) to university finances and the research ecosystem.
- Leaders of many prestigious universities call for balancing security and openness; some have stated that "without Chinese students, the U.S. university system would soon collapse".

Question

5.4 How do experts provide action advice for students?

AIAIGAnswer

“The door crack narrows, and a peephole is added”: The door is not completely closed, but movement becomes more difficult.
- Fighting without breaking: Academia and the public will strive to maintain the baseline of communication.
- Maintain a normal mindset and prepare for both outcomes: Cherish the window of opportunity, act cautiously, but do not make unrealistic 'single bets'.

Question

Conclusion: What are the bottom-line judgments and action frameworks for Chinese undergraduate and master's students studying abroad?

AIAIGAnswer

Bottom-line Judgments: In the short to medium term, enhanced security reviews and sensitive identification around Chinese students will continue; there is uncertainty in all three areas: visas, research access, and employment visas.

Action Framework (A.C.T.S):
- A — Avoidance Desensitization: Avoid associations with "civil-military fusion" in majors/statements/materials; emphasize civil/commercial use.
- C — Contingency Backup: Maintain dual redundancy in countries/institutions/timelines, parallel with domestic further education/employment.
- T — Transparency Compliance: Declare truthfully, preserve evidence, respond promptly to AP; seek legal assistance if necessary.
- S — Scenario Planning: Based on three scenarios—tension/easing/structural change—develop transition and exit plans in advance.

AIAIGAnswer

Presidential Proclamation 10043 (2020-05-29):
- Implemented visa suspension/restrictions on individuals identified as "participating in or supporting military-civil fusion", triggered by educational or employment background (not limited to direct involvement in sensitive activities).
- After implementation, approximately 1,000 Chinese student visas were revoked; as many top Chinese science and engineering institutions undertake defense projects, educational background widely triggers risks.

New Developments in 2025 (Assuming Trump Returns to Office):
- May: The Secretary of State announced actively revoking some Chinese student visas, targeting those in critical STEM fields and those deemed associated with the Chinese Communist Party; jokingly referred to by Chinese students as a new version of "exclusion of Chinese".
- Subsequently, although there were statements about increasing the intake of 600,000 Chinese students within two years to appease public opinion, visa reviews did not relax.
- Enhanced Social Media Scrutiny: Applicants must submit social media accounts for inspection; refusing to provide passwords may be considered concealment and lead to refusal; new interview appointments were temporarily suspended to upgrade the review process.
- There was discussion of limiting the proportion of international students in universities (e.g., pressuring top schools to reduce the international student ratio to below 15%), which, despite strong opposition from universities and not being implemented, reflects a policy of conservatism and suspicion.

AIAIGAnswer

Tightening in the name of national security and technology outflow spans multiple aspects including visa duration, background checks, and social media evidence collection, leading to a significant increase in uncertainty; even with admission to prestigious universities, visa risks may still prevent enrollment.

AIAIGAnswer

University Background Risks:
- U.S. policies and congressional reports have long focused on universities with military ties. The so-called 'Seven Sons of National Defense' (Beihang University, Beijing Institute of Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology) are considered closely linked to the military, undertaking significant defense research.
- Related reports indicate that some U.S. universities have admitted a considerable number of students from the 'Seven Sons' and other such institutions, and they participate in sensitive federal research; this has triggered compliance reviews and restrictions.
- After the expansion of the Entity List and export controls, more strong science and engineering universities (such as University of Electronic Science and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, etc.) have also been affected and monitored due to collaborations/projects.

AIAIGAnswer

The United States implements a 'field + background' hidden screening for Chinese students: cutting-edge technology fields are the first to be affected, and backgrounds associated with military-industrial universities create a natural disadvantage, significantly increasing uncertainty and compliance costs.

AIAIGAnswer

- After admission, there is still fear of the visa hurdle, with plans hanging in the balance.
- Surveys show that most respondents have experienced unfairness or discrimination due to their status; official study abroad warnings advise risk assessment and prevention.
- Many students have missed the start of school/courses due to delays in visa renewals, affecting academic pace and graduation plans.

AIAIGAnswer

- OPT uncertainty: There have been policy discussions to reduce STEM OPT (though not implemented), increasing anxiety.
- Stricter scrutiny of work visas: Even with an offer, one may be unable to start work due to visa denial/delays.
- Corporate concerns: Companies are more cautious about hiring Chinese citizens for cutting-edge technology positions, fearing export control and compliance risks; some states have introduced property purchase restrictions for foreigners, adding to long-term development uncertainties.

AIAIGAnswer

The multi-stage chain of uncertainties from visa to campus to employment imposes higher costs on Chinese students in terms of time, money, and psychology, making the "invisible ceiling" more common.

AIAIGAnswer

- Avoid high-sensitivity areas: Shift to business/liberal arts/basic sciences/civil-oriented STEM (such as biostatistics, environmental engineering).
- Materials and interviews: Emphasize academic/civil motivations, downplay sensitive applications; prepare research proofs/recommendation letters to support purely academic purposes.

AIAIGAnswer

- Pay attention to alerts from education/foreign affairs departments and announcements from embassies/consulates; seek legal aid/media exposure if facing unfair treatment.
- Universities provide visa consultation/online teaching transitions; industry/alumni organizations offer experience sharing/legal consultation and emergency support.

AIAIGAnswer

By implementing destination diversification, major desensitization, plan redundancy, policy/legal assistance, and rational mindset in parallel, build a study abroad plan that is resistant to uncertainty.

AIAIGAnswer

- Officials criticize the relevant practices as unreasonable/discriminatory, and provide support to students through warnings and consular protection, encouraging legal rights protection.
- At the same time, they promote talent return and optimization of domestic research positions, to some extent alleviating the pressure of 'brain drain'.

AIAIGAnswer

A. Continued tension:
- More institutionalized restrictions on Chinese student backgrounds; visas become shorter-term and more frequently reviewed; sharp decline in the number of students going to the U.S..
- U.S. universities face dual losses in finances and talent.

B. Easing and partial loosening:
- Possibly repealing Presidential Proclamation 10043, extending visa validity, returning to case-by-case review; people-to-people exchanges become a breakthrough area.
- Numbers gradually recover, but returning to pre-2019 peaks requires time and rebuilding mutual trust.

C. Structural changes (high probability baseline):
- Controls on specific sensitive technologies become the new normal; Chinese students' destinations diversify.
- The structure of the student population in the U.S. tends toward undergraduate/non-sensitive majors, with significant reduction in graduate students in sensitive fields; alternative forms such as online collaboration/dual degree programs increase.

AIAIGAnswer

If security governance is not overly politicized, and universities and industries adhere to openness and rationality, risks can be marginally alleviated; the key variables lie in major power relations and feedback from domestic and international policies.

WeChat

WeChat Service