AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 49 (Part 2): Global Market Review and Future Outlook - AIAIG

AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 49 (Part 2): Global Market Review and Future Outlook - AIAIG - AIAIG

Question

Has the Japanese real estate market experienced sentiment fluctuations due to the 'nationality registration system'?

AIAIGAnswer

In the short term, the Japanese real estate market has not shown significant fluctuations, with transaction volumes and prices in major cities such as Tokyo, Yokohama, and Osaka remaining stable. Developers and agencies generally believe that:

- The policy implementation will take 1–2 years, temporarily not affecting transaction pace;
- High-net-worth clients still trust Japan's long-term security and rule of law;
- The foreign buyer demographic is diversifying: short-term speculators are decreasing, while the proportion of long-term holders is increasing.

Question

What are the price and rental trends in Tokyo's core areas?

AIAIGAnswer

As of Week 49, 2025:

- Average price of new condominiums has increased by about 4.6% compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate narrowing compared to the first half of the year;
- Rents continue to show moderate growth, with average rents in the five core wards rising by about 2.3%;
- Vacancy rates remain below 2.5%, indicating a stable rental market.

Overall performance is better than most mature global markets. Investor focus is shifting from 'whether prices can rise' to 'cash flow returns from long-term holding'.

Question

What is the most likely evolution path for the Japanese real estate market going forward?

AIAIGAnswer

In the next two years, the Japanese real estate market will enter a phase of 'digitization and transparency':

1. The government will improve foreign investment statistical standards through nationality registration and beneficial ownership systems;
2. Developers will place greater emphasis on owner-occupier demand and compliant clients;
3. In the medium to long term, Tokyo, Nagoya, and Fukuoka will remain the most concentrated investment targets for foreign capital.

For Chinese buyers, it is recommended to focus on mid-to-high-end condominiums that offer: stable rental returns + transparent tax structures + scarce locations in core areas.

Question

What are the key trends in overseas real estate investment for the next year?

AIAIGAnswer

They can be summarized into three main themes:

1. Transparent regulation becomes the norm: More countries are enhancing foreign investment transparency through registration systems, tax information exchange, and other methods;
2. Integration of residency and investment: Real estate becomes a comprehensive vehicle for visas, tax planning, and identity planning;
3. Intensified regional competition: Regions such as Southeast Asia, the Gulf, and Southern Europe are adjusting investment thresholds and incentives to compete for capital from China and the Middle East.

Question

Which sectors are most likely to outperform the market before 2026?

AIAIGAnswer

Considering comprehensive returns, policies, and demographic structures, the following sectors have high potential:

- Residential properties in Bangkok's EEC industrial corridor: Resonance between industrial population and infrastructure;
- Apartments in Tokyo's core areas: Stable rental income and low exchange rate risk;
- Middle-class community housing in Dubai: High rental yields and can be linked to long-term visas.

Additionally, some emerging cities such as Ho Chi Minh City and Kuala Lumpur, with urban renewal and rail transit expansion, are also expected to enter the list of foreign investment focus areas.

Question

How should Chinese investors construct their overseas real estate portfolio in the future?

AIAIGAnswer

Future overseas asset allocation is recommended to adopt a "three-tier structure":

1. Bottom-tier stable positions: Stable rental assets in core areas of Japan and Malaysia;
2. Growth-oriented allocation: Emerging cities in Southeast Asia, middle-class communities in Dubai;
3. Strategic targets: A small number of high-risk, high-return projects, such as industrial corridors, resort areas, or joint development projects.

The goal is to achieve a balance between returns and safety, while diversifying risks using different currencies and institutional environments.

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AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 49 (Part 2): Global Market Review and Future Outlook

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AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report｜2025 Week 49 (Part 1): Real Estate Policies and Overseas Home Buying Information