AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report｜2025 Week 46 (Part 2): Analysis of Global Housing Price Trends, Rental Yield, and Investment Strategies

This is the "Trends" weekly report for Week 46 of 2025 (November 10 to November 16), focusing on observing real estate trends in regions such as Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai from five dimensions: market transactions, price changes, rental yield adjustments, supply-demand structure, and investor behavior. Compared to policies, trends better reflect the true sentiments of market participants. Market feedback over the past few weeks indicates that global real estate has entered a clear differentiation cycle—strong markets are becoming stronger, while weak markets continue to face pressure. This report will provide a detailed breakdown from both regional and city-level dimensions, constructing an observation framework for the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026.

Southeast Asia as a whole is in a growth cycle, but there are significant differences within the market. The main trends this week are as follows: • Cities with tourism advantages (Phuket, Chiang Mai, Bali) continue to maintain high transaction activity; • Capital cities (Bangkok, Manila, Jakarta) show structural recovery, closely related to the recovery of the rental market; • Regions promoting industrial policies (such as Eastern Ho Chi Minh, Cyberjaya in Malaysia) see simultaneous growth in commercial demand and population inflow; • Vietnam, with tightening regulations, is gradually transitioning from a speculative boom phase to a soft landing mode of "stabilizing prices and controlling leverage". These trends reflect two driving forces: tourism recovery driving growth in short-term rentals and essential rental demand, and industrial development driving the migration of the employed population.

Thailand's housing price trends this week are mainly reflected in two dimensions: tourist cities and the capital city. Phuket market: • Cumulative sales of over 10,000 residential units this year, hitting a 10-year high; • Tight supply in coastal areas, with some land prices rising by over 1000% in the past 20 years; • Foreign buyers (especially Russian-speaking buyers) continue to drive sea-view property prices to new highs; • The pre-sale market maintains a high pre-sale rate, with some projects selling out upon launch. Bangkok market: • New apartment supply has rebounded by about 15%; • Significant growth in foreign tenants—large numbers of employees from Chinese, Indian, and European/American companies are returning; • Rent increases of approximately 6%–8% year-on-year; • The rental turnover cycle in the city center (Asok, Phrom Phong) has shortened to within 2 weeks. Overall, Thailand remains in a cycle of 'strong demand + stable growth', though the distribution of growth is uneven.

The Vietnamese market exhibited a structural characteristic of 'short-term cooling, long-term stability' this week. Ho Chi Minh City: • Some investors began delaying entry, waiting for policies to be finalized; • End-users are more willing to buy houses due to stable prices; • High-tech zones and new administrative districts are driving steady or rising prices in the eastern areas. Hanoi: • New apartment prices remain firm amid limited land supply; • Old apartment renovation plans are boosting expectations of asset appreciation in some areas; • The secondary market is active, with improved price transparency. Overall, the Vietnamese market may face short-term policy pressure, but the trend remains a 'long-term upward structure driven by population and industry'.

Malaysia's trends this week indicate that the residential market is entering a 'slow recovery period,' while the commercial real estate sector is showing polarization. Residential sector: • Real estate transaction volume in the third quarter of 2025 increased by approximately 12.5% year-on-year; • Selangor, Penang, and Johor were the most active in transactions; • First-time homebuyer demand is growing, with mortgage rates declining in some areas stimulating transactions; • The issue of insufficient supply of low-priced housing persists. Commercial sector: • Demand for large warehouse and logistics space is strong, driven by the growth of cross-border e-commerce; • Technology parks and data centers are driving up activity in some emerging areas; • Older shopping malls remain oversupplied and are difficult to recover in the short term. The overall trend is 'residential steady recovery, commercial polarization intensifies.'

Indonesia's real estate prices have been extremely stable over the past two years: • The annualized increase in the housing price index is 1%–2%, with the real rate close to 0% after deducting inflation; • Demand for residential properties remains steady but lacks a breakout point; • The vacancy rate for apartments in Jakarta's CBD has decreased, but rental growth is limited; • Mid-range residential properties and assets near industrial parks maintain strong attractiveness. In September 2025, the central bank cut interest rates again to 4.75% and gradually expanded the scope of the "value-added tax reduction policy," significantly improving medium-term home purchase expectations. If economic growth maintains around 5%, a more substantial price increase is expected in 2026.

Japan continued to show a steady trend this week, especially in the metropolitan area and core designated cities. Tokyo: • Second-hand housing transaction volume increased year-on-year for 12 consecutive months; • Average apartment prices remained stable in the 26–27 million yen range; • Strong rental demand kept investment apartment returns around 6%; • The proportion of foreign homebuyers slightly increased, mainly from Asian buyers. Osaka: • Large-scale urban redevelopment drove up regional value; • The homestay market faced more regulatory discussions, but ordinary housing was minimally affected; • Investment apartments maintained good liquidity. Second-tier cities like Sapporo and Fukuoka continued to attract investor attention due to 'high livability + moderate housing prices'. Japan as a whole remains in a cycle of 'stable growth + mild supply tightening'.

Dubai continued to maintain strong transaction volumes this week, but the rate of price increases has significantly slowed compared to 2023–2024. Institutions generally believe: • Since 2021, housing prices have accumulated an increase of over 70%; • The full-year increase for 2025 is expected to be in the range of 5%–10%; • High-end residential properties remain in short supply, while mid-range housing has entered a stable cycle; • The annual increase in the rental market has dropped from a high of 20% to about 8%–9%, but the vacancy rate remains low; The market has now shifted from 'ultra-high-speed growth' to 'mature and stable growth', with investment strategies moving from chasing price increases to pursuing cash flow and long-term residency value.

The U.S. housing market continues to be suppressed by high mortgage interest rates, with rates around 7% causing many homeowners to choose 'not to sell and continue holding low-rate loans,' leading to extremely low market inventory but weak transaction volumes. Home prices are basically flat year-on-year. In some European cities, housing prices are still in a correction phase. Markets such as Germany and Sweden have experienced significant declines over the past two years, with no signs of a rapid rebound in the short term. Major cities like London are performing slightly better but are still affected by high interest rates and tax burdens. Overall, the trends in European and American markets are completely opposite to those in Southeast Asia and Dubai: weak demand, tight supply, and sideways price movements.

Feedback from media and institutional channels indicates that the global real estate investor sentiment in November 2025 primarily leans towards: • Pursuing properties with stable cash flow, such as Japanese apartments and Dubai long-term rental units; • Preferring markets with high regulatory transparency, such as Japan and Dubai; • Avoiding markets with high policy uncertainty and sharp price fluctuations; • Shifting preferences within Southeast Asia towards regions with "industry orientation + stable tourism demand"; • Generally maintaining caution towards high-interest rate markets in Europe and America. Overall, global real estate investment is entering a "stable growth + stable cash flow + stable regulation" triple-stability cycle.