AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly: 2026 Week 2 (Part 2) - Tax Hikes,...

Many investors ask at the beginning of the year: 'Will housing prices still rise this year?'

AIAIG suggests first asking three tougher questions:

• Has the purchase cost changed? (Have taxes/fees/stamp duties increased)
• Has rental compliance become stricter? (Are rental registration, rent increase calculations, and lease renewal notification processes more standardized)
• Has transaction transparency improved? (Are declarations, registration information, nationality disclosures, etc., more comprehensive)

Because these three factors directly determine: whether you can buy, how smoothly you can buy, how stable the rental is, and whether you can sell.

This week, clear 'beginning-of-year confirmations' have emerged on these three fronts: increased costs in Malaysia, strengthened rental compliance in Dubai, continued transparency governance in Japan, and Singapore using official data to set anchors.

Singapore's 'trend judgment' must return to official indices and supply pace.

Two sets of data anchors are crucial this week:

• HDB resale market (2025Q4): RPI flash report and supply arrangements help gauge the heat and policy pressure in public housing resale.
• URA private housing market (2025Q4): Private housing price index flash report provides quarterly and annual growth rates, offering an authoritative benchmark for 2026 price expectations.

AIAIG perspective: When official indices show a 'slowing/stabilizing growth' state, market trends often shift from 'broad-based gains' to 'structural differentiation':

• Location and product quality become more important
• Genuine residential/upgrade demand supports stronger than investment sentiment
• Liquidity of high-priced assets relies more on financing conditions and buyer structure

Thus, Singapore is more like a 'stabilizer': you don't expect a sharp surge, but you can treat it as part of a low-volatility asset.

When the foreign residential stamp duty enters the implementation period starting from 2026-01-01, the market often experiences three types of structural changes:

1. Buyers become more rational: Short-term speculative demand decreases, while the proportion of demand for self-occupation/long-term holding increases.
2. Pricing returns more to product strength: Strong locations and high-quality products can better 'absorb' the tax costs, while ordinary assets rely more on discounts and incentives.
3. Exit strategies depend more on cycles: High purchase costs mean a longer holding period is needed to amortize the costs.

AIAIG perspective: Malaysia can still be considered for 'cash flow-type allocation', but starting from 2026, it should be treated as a market with 'harder costs': any return calculations must undergo stress testing based on net cost metrics.

The trend of transparency in foreign investment in Japanese real estate will push the market in two directions:

• Short-term becomes more difficult: As the scope of reporting expands and registration information becomes more complete, the information gap and space for non-standard paths are compressed, increasing friction costs for short-term transactions.
• Long-term becomes more stable: Clear rules and transparent statistics make it easier to attract long-term capital, strengthening Japan's 'bottom-line attribute'.

AIAIG Perspective: For overseas buyers, Japan's trend is not about 'rising faster,' but about being 'more explainable.' When a market is more explainable, it becomes more valuable in a portfolio.

The core trend judgment in Vietnam remains: whether compliant supply can be released.

When policy narratives emphasize establishing coordination mechanisms, clearing project obstacles, and increasing the supply of affordable and social housing, the market often exhibits:

• Transactions focus more on project qualifications
• Prices are harder to detach from supply and regulatory realities
• Foreign investment opportunities come more from "increased compliant projects," rather than sentiment-driven price hikes

AIAIG View: Vietnam is suitable for an investment logic of "growth + compliance": you earn not from short-term fluctuations, but from the structural opportunities brought by the release of compliant supply.

Thailand's low transaction fee policy still provides a 'safety net background', but for foreign investors, the trend is more reflected in rental demand and sector differentiation.

AIAIG View: Thailand is more like a market that 'speaks with demand':

• Sectors with strong tourism and residential demand have more certain rental income.
• Sectors with oversupply and product homogeneity rely more on discounts for pricing and liquidity.

Therefore, rather than chasing 'policy dividends', it is better to treat rental capability (occupancy rate, tenant structure, property management) as the core screening criteria.

The trending keywords in Dubai this week are: Rental Compliance + Servitization.

The Ejari advocacy campaign emphasizes not 'more regulation', but making the rental market more predictable: registration, cancellation, certificate download, rent increase calculation, notice, and non-renewal procedures are standardized.

AIAIG Perspective: When rental compliance becomes clearer, the impact on assets is structural:
• Compliant landlords experience smoother rental processes and reduced dispute costs
• Tenants' reliance on formal contracts and procedures increases
• The market's tolerance for 'non-standard rentals' decreases

For investors, Dubai's advantage is shifting from 'property buying fever' to 'full-chain efficiency': the ability to stabilize the rental end determines cash flow quality.

Consolidate this week's information into a reusable framework:

1. First, calculate the full cost: The tax-effective node (Malaysia) will widen the gap in net returns.
2. Then, look at rule transparency: Improved declaration and registration information (Japan) will increase friction costs but enhance the underlying asset attributes.
3. Use official data as an anchor: Singapore uses the HDB/URA index to set the tone for 2026.
4. Treat rental compliance as part of asset quality: The standardization of Dubai's Ejari will directly impact the rental experience.
5. Seize 'compliance supply release' in growing markets: Opportunities in Vietnam come more from unblocking and supply.

AIAIG perspective: At the start of 2026, what often determines your returns is not 'whether you bought', but 'whether you bought compliantly, rented stably, and calculated costs clearly'.