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AIAIG观点
Feb 26, 2026
AIAIG Editorial Team

2026 Global Migration Trends: Capital, Talent, and Visa Policies

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.

Over the past two years, many developed economies have emphasized 'filling labor gaps and boosting productivity' while imposing stricter requirements on immigration volume, thresholds, and compliance: work visas focus more on high skills and high salaries, temporary and student visas emphasize 'sustainable capacity,' and investment immigration (especially real estate-based) has seen significant contraction in Europe. Based on recent policy changes and official documents from Hong Kong, Europe, America, and Oceania, this article outlines three key trends likely to continue over the next 2–3 years: competing for talent, controlling total volume, and tightening investment immigration, providing a content map and checklist for AIAIG's topic selection and landing page development.

2026 Global Migration Trends: Capital, Talent, and Visa Policies

2026 Global Migration Trends Forecast: Capital, Talent, and Visa Policy Directions (2026 Update)

Conclusion First: The Main Theme for the Next 2–3 Years Is Not 'Complete Closure,' but 'Three Things Happening Simultaneously'

Based on policy trends in multiple countries over the past two years, the global immigration trends for the next 2–3 years (2026–2028) can be summarized into three main themes:

  1. More Clearly 'Competing for Talent/Productivity': Work visas will favor high-skilled, high-salary positions, critical industries, and regional shortage roles.
  2. Greater Emphasis on 'Sustainable Capacity': Management of temporary residents, international students, low-skilled channels, and overall net inflows will become stricter (accompanied by housing, public services, and employment absorption capacity).
  3. Investment Immigration Becomes Harder to 'Directly Exchange Real Estate for Status': Multiple European 'Golden Visa/Investment Residence' programs are becoming more restrictive, more expensive, and with finer limitations (especially related to housing shortages).

This means: Immigration policies will become more 'differentiated' and 'enforceable'—whether you can enter depends not on slogans, but on whether you match the country's labor structure and regulatory direction.

1. Why are developed countries more "attractive to talent"? The underlying economic logic resembles "supply-side policies"

Viewing immigration policy as 'economic policy' makes it easier to understand the direction for the coming years.

1) Labor and Productivity Pressure: Relying on 'Replenishing People' to Sustain Growth

Many developed economies face issues such as an aging population, job vacancies, and insufficient supply in critical industries (healthcare, nursing, engineering, IT, advanced manufacturing). Immigration becomes an important tool for supplementing the labor force and skill structure.

2) Fiscal and Public Service Pressure: Competing for People but Also 'Controlling the Pace'

When housing, schools, and healthcare have insufficient capacity, policies will emphasize 'sustainable levels' more, strengthening management and review of temporary resident numbers, student visas, and low-skilled channels.

3) Political Constraints: Net Immigration/Housing Becomes Election Issues, Policies Emphasize 'Visible Control'

A common trend in multiple countries is: raising thresholds, strengthening employer compliance, tightening channels prone to abuse, while retaining 'fast tracks' for critical talent.

These logics are also prominent in the OECD's review of recent policy changes: on one hand, emphasizing labor and skills; on the other, becoming more cautious and restrictive towards programs like investment residence. You can think of it as the 'official version of the macro narrative.'

II. The Most Clear Signal: Work Category Focuses More on "High Skills/High Salary", Temporary Category Emphasizes "Capacity and Compliance"

1) United Kingdom: Thresholds and Lists More Like 'Controllable Skill Quota Tools'

The UK's work visa system in recent years emphasizes salary thresholds, occupation lists, and phased adjustments, using 'compliance and eligibility lists' to filter job scopes and employer behavior (while also adjusting which positions can be sponsored).

2) Canada: Emphasizing 'Sustainable Levels' and Setting Target Paths for Temporary Resident Numbers

In the official '2026–2028 Immigration Levels Supplementary Statement,' Canada proposes to reduce the proportion of temporary population to more sustainable levels and sets target ranges for new temporary residents (work permits, study permits, etc.) in the coming years. Such expressions essentially represent 'capacity management.'

3) Australia: Maintaining Permanent Quota Planning, but Emphasizing Skills and Shortages in Structure and Priorities

Australia's officially announced immigration planning quotas still maintain a relatively clear annual planning framework, with policy discussions focusing on how to better align with labor shortages and industry needs.

For content topics: Instead of writing generic 'national immigration policies,' it's better to create 'path-type tool pages': who is suitable for which channel, how thresholds are changing, and what the compliance key points are.

III. Key Changes in Investment Immigration: From "Buying a House for Residency" to "Stricter, More Expensive, and More Scrutinized"

1) The contraction of Europe's "Golden Visa/Investment Residency" is a direct result of housing and regulatory pressures

In recent years, several European countries have become more cautious about investment residency programs:

  • Higher investment thresholds (especially for real estate in popular areas)
  • Stricter usage restrictions (to avoid conflicts with local housing supply)
  • Greater emphasis on source of funds review and compliance proof

2) Spain is a strong signal: Golden Visa is explicitly terminated

Spain passed legal changes in 2025, explicitly terminating the "Golden Visa" as a pathway to obtain residency (and setting an effective date). Such events reinforce a trend: When housing conflicts rise, real estate-based investment residency is more likely to become a target for tightening.

For high-net-worth individuals and those focused on asset allocation, a more realistic path in the future often involves: centering on work/talent/entrepreneurship/tax residency planning, with investment serving more as a complement to "lifestyle and asset allocation," rather than "directly exchanging for status."

IV. Translating Trends into Action: AIAIG's Recommended "2×3 Content Map" (You can expand this into a column matrix)

A. Talent Competition Line (More stable, with relatively sustainable policies)

  • Work Visa Tool Page: Threshold comparisons for Country A/B/C (salary, occupation list, language, education, employer compliance)
  • Family Accompanying and Education Tool Page: Spouse work rights, children's school enrollment, health insurance, and long-term living costs
  • Landing Path Page: Feasible paths and common failure points from student → work visa → long-term residency

B. Capacity Management Line (Most "real-time," suitable for update log pages)

  • Temporary Resident/Student Visa Policy Update Page: Quotas, review points, proof of funds, employment restrictions
  • Housing and Public Service Pressure Observation Page: Linking policy changes to urban housing, rent, and school resource explanations
  • Compliance Checklist Page: Renewal, address declaration, employer change, working hour limits, legal consequences

C. Investment Immigration Line (More prone to "passive tightening," suitable for risk warnings and alternative solutions)

  • Golden Visa/Investment Residency Comparison Page: Which ones have closed, which have raised thresholds, which have shifted to fund/entity investments
  • Source of Funds and Anti-Money Laundering Material Checklist: Proof chain, common sticking points
  • Alternative Path Page: "Suitable groups" and costs for talent/entrepreneurship/family reunion/tax residency paths

The advantage of this matrix: You don't need to chase news daily; just maintain the "Update Log Page (Tracker)," and use tool pages to handle long-tail searches.

Question

What specific policy actions reflect the 'competition for high-net-worth talent capital among developed countries'?

AIAIGAnswer
More common manifestations include: work/talent visas placing greater emphasis on high skills and high salaries, priority for key industries, and stricter employer compliance; while retaining talent attraction policies for fields such as scientific research, entrepreneurship, and advanced manufacturing. Investment pathways, on the other hand, emphasize more on the scrutiny of fund sources and the genuine contribution of projects, rather than simply buying property.
AIAIG
Question

What evidence suggests that 'investment immigration will tighten' in the next 2–3 years?

AIAIGAnswer
In the OECD's review of recent policy changes, many countries have become more cautious about golden visas, with some raising thresholds or restricting usage; Spain's explicit termination of the golden visa pathway also serves as a strong signal. The overall trend is: residency-by-real-estate-investment is more susceptible to being affected by housing issues.
AIAIG
Question

Does this mean immigration will become more difficult?

AIAIGAnswer
It will be more difficult for 'non-matching groups,' but clearer for 'matching groups.' Policies act more like filters: the closer you align with labor shortages, industrial upgrading, and compliance requirements, the more stable your pathway; conversely, pathways relying on low thresholds or gray areas will narrow.
AIAIG
Question

How can AIAIG make 'predictions' in content more reliable?

AIAIGAnswer
Use the approach of 'making directional inferences based on policy changes that have already occurred': list the thresholds and objectives that countries have already implemented/announced, then summarize their commonalities (competing for talent, controlling capacity, tightening investment immigration), avoiding giving specific timelines and definitive promises.
AIAIG
Question

What types of pages are most suitable for being made into 'continuously updated' pages?

AIAIGAnswer
Three categories: 1) Updates on temporary resident/student visa policies in various countries; 2) Updates on work visa thresholds and occupation lists; 3) Tracking pages for the existence and threshold changes of European investment residency (golden visas). The first screen should have a fixed 'last updated time + summary of changes this month'.
AIAIG
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.
Last updated: Feb 26, 2026