AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly Report: Global Price and Rent...
Statistical period: December 15–21, 2025. This report analyzes price and rent structure changes in Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai from the perspective of the year-end 'slow season and capital rebalancing,' and provides AIAIG's cross-regional allocation framework and risk warnings based on US dollar interest rate expectations and Gulf financial market sentiment.
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I. Year-End Market Status: Not a Crash, Not a Frenzy, but "Differentiation Confirmation"
Week 51 falls within the typical year-end trading window: transaction pace naturally slows down, and the market enters a phase of 'inventory and repricing.' From a global perspective, the real estate market at the end of 2025 resembles more of a 'differentiation confirmation period':
• Europe and the United States: Under high interest rates and stricter regulatory environments, transaction volumes are weak, but core assets have not experienced a systemic plunge.
• Southeast Asia: More reflects a cash flow logic of 'strong rents and stable prices.'
• Japan: Low volatility characteristics are strengthening, being used by more funds as a portfolio anchor.
• Dubai: High returns coexist with cycle awareness, and investors are increasingly focusing on sector and product quality.
AIAIG Viewpoint: The key to success in 2026 is not 'betting on a single market,' but 'using a portfolio to capitalize on differentiation.'
"At the same time, some cities make money from rent, some from policies, and some from currency and capital security."
II. Southeast Asia: Rent Takes the Lead, Prices Depend More on 'Demand Structure' Than Sentiment
The common characteristic of Southeast Asia by the end of 2025 is that rental demand is more certain than buying sentiment.
• Thailand: The overlap of short-term and long-term rental demand during the peak tourist season makes it easier for rents to rise in hotspot cities.
• Vietnam: Against the backdrop of increased regulatory focus on 'housing affordability,' prices are less likely to be quickly driven up by speculative sentiment, and the market leans more towards 'slow variables.'
• Malaysia: Sectors supported by owner-occupation and study-abroad demand are more stable, with price elasticity typically not as strong as rental elasticity.
AIAIG reminder: For long-term allocation in Southeast Asia, the core is not 'buying at the lowest point,' but 'buying on the sustainable rental demand line' (strong demand can be formed by selecting two out of four factors: transportation, employment, education, and tourism).
