In one sentence, where are the opportunities and risks in Southeast Asia this week?

Opportunities lie in cost-side incentives and supply cycle windows in places like Indonesia, while risks involve anti-speculation measures and credit prudence in areas like Vietnam that may compress short-term speculation space; within the same region, there will be more differentiation, with properties closer to genuine rental demand and mature amenities being more resilient to policy fluctuations.

AIAIG观点

2026年2月8日

AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly: Global Housing and Rental Trends,...

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.

This Week's Trend Conclusion: Interest Rates and Rental Regulations Determine 'Transactions and Cash Flow', Housing Prices Are More Like a Result Than a Cause

If you abstract this week's information from 'regional news' to 'asset pricing factors,' you will find:

Capital prices (interest rates/exchange rates/capital flows) determine transaction activity and leverage boundaries;
Rental rules determine whether cash flow can be stably realized (occupancy numbers, registration, rent adjustment tools);
Digitalization and stricter compliance determine transaction friction costs (declaration/registration/beneficial owner explanations).

AIAIG Perspective: Information-based weekly reports do not need to force 'buy/sell strategies,' but must help readers convert information into three questions:

Does this news affect transaction costs, financing costs, or holding and rental compliance?
Is the impact nationwide or stronger only for hotspot cities/specific products?
For foreign buyers, is it 'documentation upfront,' 'tax increases,' or 'harder to exit'?

1. Southeast Asia's "Policy Differentiation" Becomes Clearer: Vietnam Leans Towards Governance Speculation, Indonesia Leans Towards Cost Stimulation, Singapore Leans Towards Stable Leasing

Similarly in Southeast Asia, three orientations are parallel this week:

Vietnam: Governing speculation and financial risks

Through tax policy signals and more prudent credit standards, suppressing short-term speculation and high vacancy rates.
Trend implication: Short-term price upside depends more on real demand and supply structure, rather than a rush of capital.

Indonesia: Stimulating transactions on the cost side

Using government-assumed VAT (PPN DTP) incentives to reduce purchase costs, more beneficial for new home transactions with 'clear delivery schedules.'
Trend implication: Stimulus policies can boost transactions, but transmission varies greatly across different cities/projects (inventory structure and delivery capacity are more critical).

Singapore: Stabilizing rental and supply expectation management

Extending the relaxation of occupancy caps, combined with continuous release of BTO/SBF supply, reflecting dual-track stability of 'rental order + supply expectations.'
Trend implication: In strongly regulated markets, rental and supply expectations suppress severe volatility, with differentiation mainly from location and product scarcity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-plans-tax-policies-tackle-speculation-real-estate-market-2026-01-14/

https://www.pwc.com/id/en/taxflash/assets/english/2026/taxflash-2026-02.pdf

https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/news-and-publications/press-releases/extension-of-temporary-relaxation-of-occupancy-cap-for-rental-of-hdb-flats-and-private-residential

II. Common Ground Between Japan and Dubai: Both Are Strengthening "Enforceable Rules" to Stabilize Market Expectations with Data and Processes

Japan and Dubai may seem different, but this week, both are doing one thing: institutionalizing key nodes of market operations.

Japan:
• Launching a larger-scale survey on foreign land purchases (data pre-positioning);
• Starting in February, implementing a proof system for "querying real estate under one's name by person" (asset inventory and compliance tooling);
• The medium-term direction remains to systematically grasp the actual status of foreign holdings.
Dubai:
• DLD strengthens Ejari promotion, using clearer processes to reduce rental disputes and enforcement costs;
• The Rental Index tool becomes the standard reference for rent adjustments.

AIAIG Perspective: As regulation increasingly relies on "traceable data," the core capability for investors is to standardize the transaction chain: contracts, registration, notifications, and evidence chains.

https://japantoday.com/category/politics/japan-to-launch-probe-into-large-scale-land-acquisitions-by-foreigners

https://www.realestate-tokyo.com/news/property-record-2026/

https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/news-media/dubai-land-department-strengthens-rental-market-awareness-through-new-ejari-campaign/

https://dubailand.gov.ae/en/eservices/rental-index/rental-index/

Three, Malaysia: The narrative of capital repatriation heats up, but rising costs for foreign buyers reduce the 'short-term cost-effectiveness'

Malaysia's trend signal this week is 'simultaneous rise in demand and costs':

Demand side: The return of foreign capital and the strengthening narrative of asset attractiveness typically first reflect in core cities and asset categories investable by institutions (high-quality residential/complex/industrial park-related assets).
Cost side: The increase in stamp duty for foreign residential transfers makes the one-time cost on the buying end higher.

AIAIG View:

When capital conditions improve but buying taxes and fees rise, the market is more prone to a divergence:
• Long-term, cash flow-oriented buyers are still willing to enter;
• Short-term arbitrage buyers will be more cautious.
A more practical approach for overseas buyers is: include taxes and fees, state thresholds, and holding structure differences in the cost table, and then decide whether it's worth chasing the price.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-investors-betting-rising-star-malaysia-foreign-cash-piles-2026-02-05/

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/my/pdf/budget2026-tl-stamp-duty.pdf

IV. Optional "Major Hotspot" Supplement: Rising Political Uncertainty in Thailand, Macro Risk Premium May Affect Real Estate Sentiment

This week, Thailand's international media spotlight focused more on politics and elections rather than direct real estate policy changes.

Why is it still worth paying attention to?

Real estate is a typical asset that is 'sensitive to risk premiums': when political uncertainty rises, it often first affects foreign capital risk appetite, exchange rate volatility, and development financing sentiment.
For foreign buyers, the most direct short-term transmission typically includes:
• More volatile exchange rates and cross-border funding costs;
• Slower market transaction pace and increased bargaining space;
• But high-quality location assets are more resilient during fluctuations.

AIAIG Perspective: If you are viewing properties in Thailand this week, focus on 'cash flow and holding safety margins' rather than chasing emotional ups and downs; political events are more like 'transaction pace variables' than 'long-term fundamental variables'.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-pm-anutins-gamble-nationalism-be-tested-in-close-election-2026-02-06/

Question

This week's trend is inward, why do you emphasize 'leasing rules/registration tools/taxes' more than housing prices?

AIAIGAnswer

Because for cross-border investors, what most easily determines profit differences in the short term is often not the direction of housing prices, but whether cash flow can be realized compliantly and whether transaction costs are underestimated: factors like occupancy limits, lease registration, rent adjustment tools, and stamp duties for foreign buyers can 'immediately affect outcomes' and are more verifiable.

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