After Japan's New Homestay Regulations Take Effect: Can Airbnb Investments Still Make Money?

This wave of 'new regulations' is not a single law but the result of multiple layers of regulation, with the core including:

1. Increased operational qualification thresholds:
- All private lodgings (minpaku) must register with local governments as 'residential lodging operators' and obtain a registration number to operate.
- Unlicensed operations face fines of up to 1 million yen, with local governments actually conducting enforcement and on-site inspections.

2. Restricted operating days:
- The 'Residential Lodging Business Act' (Minpaku Law), effective since 2018, stipulates that ordinary minpaku can operate for a maximum of 180 days per year.
- This means properties must cease operations for half the year or switch to medium- to long-term rental models.

3. Tightening of applications in local cities:
- Osaka City has become a focal point, with its 'special zone minpaku' accounting for about 90% of the national total; in fiscal year 2024, it received about 400 complaints related to noise, garbage, and illegal short-term rentals.
- As a result, Osaka City announced around October 2025 that it would suspend acceptance of new applications for special zone minpaku, meaning the path to 'year-round operation' is temporarily blocked.

This 'crackdown' marks the transition of the short-term rental market from a gray area to a compliant era. For investors, the profit logic shifts from 'high-frequency rentals' to 'license scarcity + compliant operation'.

It is not a 'complete ban on Airbnb', but rather a suspension of the most profitable operation channel—'Special Zone Minpaku'.

1. Ordinary Minpaku (under the Minpaku Law)
- Annual operation limit of 180 days.
- Requires declaration and a 24-hour contact system.
- If the owner is not a resident, a licensed local management company must be appointed.

2. Special Zone Minpaku (under the National Strategic Special Zone system)
- Can operate year-round, but requires guests to stay for at least 2 nights and 3 days consecutively.
- Requires a separate permit application with strict screening.

3. Current Situation in Osaka:
- From 2025, new permits for 'Special Zone Minpaku' will be suspended to reduce nuisance and violation density.
- For investors:
- Existing licensed assets become more scarce;
- New investors find it difficult to replicate the 'year-round high-profit' model.

Conclusion: The Osaka market is entering a 'license premium' phase; Airbnb can still be done, but the barriers and regulatory costs have significantly increased.

Yes, but you must deal with the triple restrictions of national law + local regulations + building rules:

1. Local regulations:
- Many areas reduce allowable operating hours or zones.
- Typical practices:
- Only allow weekend hosting;
- Prohibit homestays near schools and nurseries;
- Limited to commercial or tourist areas.

2. Building management rules:
- Many condominium management regulations directly prohibit homestay operations.
- If the rules restrict it, owners cannot override them with personal wishes.

3. Operator eligibility:
- Foreigners can freely purchase property, but if they are not in Japan and have no visa, they must entrust a local compliant operator.
- The operator must fulfill 24-hour contact, guest registration, and tax reporting obligations.

Summary: Compliant short-term rentals are still feasible in Japan, but they must be operated according to "professional accommodation industry" standards, avoiding gray-area practices.

Three feasible paths:

1. Hotel Business License (Simple Lodging)
- Allows year-round operation, not subject to the 180-day limit.
- Must meet strict standards for fire safety, evacuation routes, hygiene, etc.
- Suitable for entire buildings or small hotel renovation projects.

2. Special Zone Minpaku Permit
- Located in national strategic special zones, allows year-round operation.
- However, areas are limited, with requirements for consecutive stay days and high application difficulty.
- Suitable for those holding existing licenses or purchasing assets with licenses.

3. Medium- to Long-Term Furnished Rental (Monthly Rental Model)
- Lease terms of 30 days or more convert to ordinary rentals, not subject to Minpaku law constraints.
- Target customer groups: expatriates, digital nomads, international students.
- More stable returns, with lower gross profit but better risk resistance.

Conclusion: To achieve year-round returns in Japan's short-term rentals, it is essential to determine the operation mode in advance—hotelization, special zone utilization, or medium- to long-term rental.

Yes, but it must be achieved through local cooperation or corporate structure:

1. No nationality restrictions on property purchase:
- Foreign individuals and companies can directly purchase Japanese real estate (land, apartments, entire buildings).

2. Operation is restricted by identity:
- Individuals cannot manage short-term rentals remotely.
- It is necessary to entrust a licensed local management company to operate on their behalf.
- If self-operating, a Japanese corporation must be established and a "Business Manager Visa" applied for.

3. Visa thresholds are rising:
- Starting in 2025, the Business Manager Visa requires higher capital (approximately 30 million yen), a fixed office space, and employee allocation.
- "Obtaining a visa with just a few guesthouses" is no longer feasible.

4. Managed models are becoming mainstream:
- Overseas owners often adopt an "asset + managed operation" combination, with management fees around 15%-20%.

Warning: There is a high risk of illegal remote self-management; local governments enforce regulations frequently, and illegal operations may lead to revocation of registration.

There is still profit, but it is no longer a 'high-profit side business'; it has become a professional accommodation industry.

There are three main profit models:

1. High-margin impact type (Osaka, Sapporo, Okinawa)
- Operates year-round under the Hotel Business Act/Special Zone Minpaku license.
- High occupancy rates + peak season premiums.
- High policy risks and complaint rates.

2. Hybrid 180-day + monthly rental type (Tokyo, Nagoya)
- Short-term rentals during peak seasons, switch to monthly rentals in off-seasons.
- Complex management requires precise scheduling.

3. Medium- to long-term furnished rental type (Central Tokyo, Yokohama)
- Stable tenants with almost no regulatory risks.
- Return rate around 3%-6% annualized, resistant to exchange rate fluctuations.

Core logic: Profitability is directly proportional to regulatory pressure; 'high returns' mean higher compliance costs and policy risks.

Opportunities still exist, but the logic has shifted to 'competing for compliant quotas and scarce locations'.

1. Licenses become asset premiums:
- Osaka has suspended new permits, making existing 'Special Zone Minpaku' licenses scarce.
- Future transactions will focus on 'properties with licenses'.

2. Regulatory divergence continues:
- Kyoto, Tokyo core areas: Continue strict controls, limiting weekday rentals.
- Osaka, Sapporo, Okinawa: Tend to retain compliant short-term rentals and support professional operators.

3. Industry moving towards normalized compliance:
- The 180-day limit and registration system will persist long-term.
- High local complaint rates prompt governments to maintain strict oversight.

4. Investment strategy recommendations:
- Determine the operational path before purchase (Minpaku Law / Hotel Business Law / Special Zone / Long-term rental).
- Prioritize properties with 'compliance + convertibility' structures.
- Include management and compliance costs in the investment model.

Summary: Airbnb can still make money in Japan, but it has evolved into a 'policy-quota-constrained accommodation industry'. Future winners will be investors who understand regulations, prioritize compliance, and excel in operations.