AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 52 (Part 2):... - AIAIG

1. The Real State of the Year-End Market: Trading Slows Down, but "Differentiation Becomes More Certain"

Week 52 falls within the typical year-end trading window: listing and transaction paces naturally slow down, with buyers more inclined to wait until after the new year to make decisions. However, it is important to emphasize: slow transactions ≠ weak fundamentals.

AIAIG observes that the more critical change is: differentiation is becoming more certain.

• One type of market relies on "cash flow" (rent) to speak: some cities in Southeast Asia, certain sectors in Dubai.
• One type of market relies on "stability and rules" to speak: core cities in Japan.
• One type of market relies on "interest rates and regulation" to determine the pace: Europe, the US, and some mature markets.

Therefore, the year-end weekly report is more suitable for making "structural judgments" rather than "short-term price fluctuation predictions".

II. Southeast Asia: Rental Income Offers More Certainty Than Price Appreciation Potential

The common characteristics of Southeast Asia by the end of 2025 are: rental demand is more 'verifiable', and price elasticity is more 'structure-dependent'.

• Thailand: Peak seasons create overlapping demand for short-term and long-term rentals, making rents more likely to strengthen; but whether prices rise depends more on location, supply, and product quality.
• Vietnam: Discussions on supply expansion and legal bottleneck improvements are heating up, the market leans more towards 'slow variables', making it difficult for prices to be quickly driven up by sentiment.
• Malaysia: More like a 'cash flow market', not pursuing extreme price increases, but more suitable for covering holding costs with rental income.

AIAIG reminder: The core of investing in Southeast Asia is not 'guessing price rises', but verifying with demand—at least two of the four factors: transportation/employment/education/tourism must be met to more easily form sustainable rental capacity.

III. Japan: Enhanced "Bottom-of-the-Portfolio Asset" Attributes with Low Volatility, but Rising Compliance and Transparency Costs

Japan's position in the global portfolio is shifting from a 'currency arbitrage destination' to a 'stabilizer.' The biggest revelation for investors in Week 52 is not about prices, but about the system: the reporting and registration information for foreign real estate purchases will become more comprehensive.

This will lead to two types of outcomes:

• For long-term holders: rules become clearer, risks more explainable, and long-term capital is more willing to enter.
• For short-term and opaque structures: compliance friction costs increase, and information asymmetry benefits decline.

AIAIG perspective: If you treat Japan as a core holding, you should position the source of returns as 'rental cash flow + long-term stability,' rather than short-term price differentials.

Four, Dubai: Returns Still Exist, but "Efficiency" Determines the Speed of Cash Flow Initiation

Dubai remains one of the globally high-attention markets by the end of 2025, but the investment experience increasingly depends on 'efficiency'—financing efficiency, registration efficiency, and resale efficiency.

Two efficiency-related signals this week are worth incorporating into trend judgments:

• Digitalization of mortgage platforms: Reduces comparison costs, shortens processing cycles, and is beneficial for increasing transaction and financing penetration rates.
• Upgraded services for mortgage release after loan settlement: Helps improve property transfer efficiency, indirectly reducing friction costs in the secondary market.

AIAIG perspective: Dubai is more suitable for a strategy focused on 'cash flow + medium-to-long-term holding'. For those chasing short-term highs, the liquidity contraction and sector differentiation at year-end will amplify risks.

V. Cross-Regional Capital Rebalancing: Why "Stabilizing the Domestic Real Estate Market" Affects the Structure of Overseas Buyers

This week, a cross-regional hotspot worth incorporating into the trend framework comes from China: officials have proposed strengthening urban renewal and stabilizing the real estate market by 2026, while emphasizing the supply of affordable housing and a risk disposal framework.

AIAIG Perspective: When domestic policy goals lean more towards 'stabilizing expectations and de-risking,' household asset behavior often undergoes two types of changes:

• Domestically: Greater emphasis on delivery, completed properties, and risk disposal mechanisms.
• Internationally: Greater emphasis on clear rules, stable systems, and cash flow assets.

This indirectly affects markets such as Japan, Southeast Asia, and Dubai: buyers may become more rational and long-term oriented, and the market's pricing power for 'stable returns and transparent rules' will increase.

Six, AIAIG Reusable Configuration Framework: Base Layer, Cash Flow, Elasticity Three-Tier Structure

For cross-border allocation before 2026, AIAIG recommends replacing the 'betting on a single market' approach with a three-tier structure:

Base Layer (clear rules, low volatility): Core cities in Japan are typical examples.
Cash Flow Layer (verifiable demand, rent coverage): High-demand cities in Southeast Asia (meeting at least two of the following: transportation/employment/education/tourism).
Elastic Layer (high returns but more dependent on timing and product quality): Premium sectors and high-quality products in Dubai.

The value of this framework lies in: when the world enters an era of divergence, you don't need to guess the only correct answer, but rather use a portfolio to achieve certainty across multiple answers.

AIAIG one-sentence summary: Global real estate has shifted from 'competing on who rises faster' to 'competing on who is more transparent, efficient, and suitable for long-term holding.'

Japan uses transparency and reporting system upgrades to solidify its foundational asset attributes; Southeast Asia uses supply and demand structures to determine rental logic; Dubai uses financial and registration efficiency improvements to enhance market attractiveness.

Seven, Conclusion of This Article: The Best Thing to Do During the Year-End Off-Season is to Build the "Structure"

The year-end off-season is not suitable for making impulsive decisions, but it is very suitable for making structural preparations:

• Set up the combination of 'base position—cash flow—flexibility'
• Prepare compliance materials and explanations of fund sources (especially in markets with increasing transparency trends like Japan)
• Establish a screening system for sectors and product strength (especially in highly differentiated markets like Dubai)

AIAIG View: What truly creates a gap in 2026 is not whether you buy or not, but whether you buy within the framework of 'transparent rules + verifiable demand'.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.

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AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 52 (Part 2):...