Is this a sign that Japan is about to start 'restricting foreign buyers'?

Q: Is this a sign that Japan is about to start 'restricting foreign buyers'?

A more accurate description is: Japan is turning 'foreign investment in real estate' from a social controversy into a 'quantifiable and governable' policy target.In the short term, Japan's current actions lean towards 'improving declaration and registration information,' which is part of governance infrastructure; it does not directly announce purchase restrictions.In the medium to long term, once data indicates that certain areas or types of transactions are highly correlated with speculation, Japan is fully capable of adopting more refined tools: • Strengthening scrutiny for specific areas/transaction types • Increasing tax burdens on short-term resale activities • Introducing stronger regulations in highly sensitive areasAIAIG's view: First data-driven, then differentiated is a path more aligned with Japan's policy style.

AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly Report | Week 51, 2025: Latest Real... - AIAIG

I. Weekly Overview: Year-End Policies Focus on "Transparency and Order" Rather Than "Stimulus"

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.

Week 51 of 2025 (12/15–12/21) shows clear year-end characteristics in real estate policies across countries:

• Southeast Asia: Continues to "support genuine demand," emphasizing controllable transaction costs, supply-side advancement, and order governance.
• Japan: Foreign investment in property regulation moves towards "digitalization and institutionalization," with the core keyword being "grasping the full picture."
• Dubai: System stability + improved financial efficiency, continuing to streamline the "buying property—residency—long-term living" chain.
• Europe and America: The framework for stricter scrutiny of cross-border assets and sensitive areas continues to expand.

AIAIG Perspective: This is not a "policy relaxation week," but a "regulatory foundation upgrade week." For long-term investors, increased transparency often means clearer risk boundaries; for short-term arbitrageurs, rising compliance thresholds and disclosure costs will gradually compress opportunities.

II. Japan: Major Signal in Foreign Investment Property Regulation—From "Partial Reporting" to "Comprehensive Control"

This week, Japan has released two highly relevant and highly "practical" policy signals for overseas property buyers:

Expansion of foreign homebuyer reporting scope: Japan's Finance Minister publicly stated that Japan plans to revise rules to require foreigners purchasing domestic properties (including residential use) to submit reports to the government, moving from a focus on "investment use reporting" to more comprehensive coverage.
Real estate registration to require nationality information: The Japanese government is also advancing the collection of "nationality" information during real estate registration to analyze the acquisition of land and buildings by foreigners.

AIAIG Perspective: This indicates that Japan is not immediately moving toward "banning foreign capital," but rather first completing the "national-level data foundation." Once the data foundation is established, more refined differential policies (such as additional reviews or tax designs for certain regions, transaction types, or holding structures) may emerge. For Chinese buyers, buying property in the future will be more like operating within a "recognizable and countable" system, rather than gray-box transactions in a state of information scarcity.

Direct Impact Checklist for Investors (Actionable Version):

• Higher 'document completeness' requirements for property purchase paths: Identity/residence/nationality information is more likely to be included in registration and declaration systems.
• Increased 'transparency premium' for holdings through legal entities, SPVs, trusts, etc.: If future regulations extend to the beneficial owner (UBO) level, compliance costs will become more significant.
• Potential impacts on the sales side: Once nationality information or foreign investment statistics become focal points in policy discussions, market risks related to public opinion and transaction friction for 'certain types of assets' may rise (especially in popular core areas and more speculative products).

AIAIG Recommendation: Japan remains a stable asset, but the buying rationale should lean more towards 'rental cash flow + long-term holding' rather than 'betting on short-term price gaps'.

A more accurate description is: Japan is turning 'foreign investment in real estate' from a social controversy into a 'quantifiable and governable' policy target.

In the short term, Japan's current actions lean towards 'improving declaration and registration information,' which is part of governance infrastructure; it does not directly announce purchase restrictions.

In the medium to long term, once data indicates that certain areas or types of transactions are highly correlated with speculation, Japan is fully capable of adopting more refined tools:

• Strengthening scrutiny for specific areas/transaction types
• Increasing tax burdens on short-term resale activities
• Introducing stronger regulations in highly sensitive areas

AIAIG's view: First data-driven, then differentiated is a path more aligned with Japan's policy style.

III. Vietnam: Top Leadership Reiterates "Housing Rights + Market Order", Supply Side Remains the Main Focus

The core signal released by Vietnam this week is: the government continues to prioritize policies that 'meet housing demand, ensure residents' housing rights, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market,' and demands stronger coordination and implementation efforts.

AIAIG View: Vietnam's policy focus remains skewed towards the 'supply side + regulatory side,' rather than stimulating prices. For investors, this means:

• Project selection should place greater emphasis on compliance and qualifications (approval, funding, delivery capability).
• If the list of projects allowed for foreign ownership or the scope of permissible purchases continues to expand in the future, opportunities will come more from the 'compliance window' rather than the 'speculation window'.

Supplement: List of Projects Available for Foreign Investment and the Pace of "Compliant Purchases"

In Vietnam, foreign nationals purchasing housing are generally still subject to restrictions based on project qualifications, quotas, and types. In market practice, investors need to pay more attention to:

• Whether the project is included in the local list of properties allowed for foreign ownership
• Whether the foreign quota for a single building/area is nearing its limit
• Property tenure, renewal mechanisms, and resale pathways

AIAIG suggests: Vietnam is more like a "growth market with increasing policy certainty," suitable for focusing on the pace of 'selecting the right project, holding patiently, and using rental income to navigate through cycles.'

IV. Thailand: The "Continuation Expectation" of Low Transaction Fee Policy Strengthens, But It Is Not Universally Beneficial for Foreign Investment

Thailand's focus remains on 'reducing transaction costs and supporting transaction volumes,' but it is important to emphasize that many low-fee incentives are more favorable to domestic buyers or transactions meeting specific conditions.

From an investor's perspective, what is worth noting this week is not new policies, but the further clarification of market expectations that 'existing policies will continue until 2026' (the industry and media have repeatedly mentioned the continuation and support effects).

AIAIG's view: The key variables for foreign investors in Thailand remain:
• Foreign purchase structures (condominiums/leases/company holdings, etc.)
• Real rental demand in cities and sectors (tourism, employment, education)
• Regulatory direction (standardization of lease contracts, consumer protection, short-term rental governance, etc.)

Transaction fee incentives primarily affect local transactions and market sentiment, offering limited direct benefits to foreign investors, but indirectly they can improve market liquidity and price stability.

Five, Singapore: Continuing to Use "Tax + Holding Period" to Suppress Short-Term Trading, Investment Attributes Actively Weakened

Singapore's regulatory toolkit for the residential market still centers on 'stamp duties and holding period constraints.' Starting from July 2025, the Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) for private residential properties will be increased, and the holding period will be extended to 4 years. This institutional framework continues to play a role in 'curbing short-term transactions' by the end of the year.

AIAIG Perspective: Singapore is a typical 'residence-first' market, and the suitable investment logic leans more towards:

• Long-term preservation of high-quality assets (hedging against currency and asset volatility)
• Long-term demand driven by precise sectors/school districts/scarce supply

Unsuitable logic:
• Relying on short-term flipping for profits
• Expecting policies to quickly turn accommodative

Six, Dubai: Financial Efficiency Upgrade (Digital Mortgage) + Residence Policy Anchor (2 Million AED Property)

The biggest policy highlight in Dubai this week is not new taxes or purchase restrictions, but: making home purchase financing faster and more 'platform-based'.

On one hand, Dubai has seen the launch of digital mortgage platforms targeting residents/homebuyers, emphasizing connections with multiple lending institutions, increased transparency, and improved processing efficiency; on the other hand, the anchor point of the real estate investor golden residency system (common threshold being property value reaching 2 million AED) remains stable.

AIAIG Perspective: Dubai's advantages will become further 'productized' by the end of 2025:

• Institutional stability (tax and residency frameworks are relatively clear)
• Improved financial efficiency (faster mortgage processes, more centralized channels)
• Strong market liquidity (active transactions, diverse products)

This is more friendly to those focused on 'rental + long-term living planning'; those chasing short-term highs should be cautious of year-end liquidity declines and sector differentiation.

Seven, This Week's "Hot Topic Supplement": Intensified Competition Among Gulf Countries – Bahrain Lowers Threshold for Real Estate Investment Residency

Although Bahrain is not a regular focus market in the AIAIG Weekly Report, a representative signal emerged this week: Bahrain lowered the minimum real estate investment threshold for its 'Golden Residency' program (from a higher threshold to BHD 130,000).

AIAIG Perspective: This reflects that a 'residency attractiveness competition' is forming among Gulf countries. The implications for investors are:

• The Gulf is not just Dubai: Different countries may compete for long-term residency and capital with lower thresholds.
• However, there are still gradient differences in institutional maturity, secondary market liquidity, and urban internationalization levels.

If your goal is 'liquidity + mature market', Dubai remains the main battlefield; if your goal is 'low-threshold residency + medium-to-long-term planning', you can pay attention to policy changes like those in Bahrain.

Eight, Conclusion of This Article: The Policy Theme for 2026 – More Transparent, More Compliant, More Long-term

AIAIG This Week's Conclusion (Policy Direction):

• Japan: Upgrading foreign real estate purchases from "public debate" to "governance target," with data and reporting as the first step.
• Vietnam: Continuing to focus on "housing supply and order governance," with price stimulation not a priority.
• Thailand: Expectations for transaction cost support are strengthening, but foreign investment benefits come more from rental demand and structural choices.
• Singapore: Using taxes and holding periods to continuously suppress short-term trading, actively weakening investment attributes.
• Dubai: Institutional stability + financial efficiency upgrades, further productizing the home-buying chain.

If you are a long-term investor, this week's changes are favorable: because the rule boundaries are clearer; if you are a short-term trader, this week's changes are a reminder: because arbitrage opportunities will gradually be squeezed by compliance and transparency.

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AIAIG Overseas Property Investment Weekly Report | Week 51, 2025: Latest Real...