2025 Singapore Real Estate Market In-depth Observation: Macro Environment, Policy Regulation, and Foreign Buyer Motivations

Question

How was Singapore's overall economic performance in 2025?

AIAIGAnswer

In the third quarter of 2025, Singapore's GDP grew by 4.2% year-on-year and 2.4% quarter-on-quarter, showing a strong recovery momentum. The full-year GDP forecast has been revised up to approximately 4.0%. Core inflation remains between 0.3% and 0.4%, with CPI at only 0.7%, and monetary policy remains neutral to accommodative. The resident unemployment rate is about 2.8%, and the citizen unemployment rate is 3.0%, still at low levels. Overall, the economy is stable, inflation is moderate, and employment is good, providing fundamental support for the real estate market.

AIAIGAnswer

Moderate inflation weakens the anti-inflation motivation for home purchases, while high interest rates limit leveraged buying. Global trade risks (such as U.S.-China friction) increase buyer hesitation, but low unemployment and stable income support owner-occupier demand. Actual borrowing costs remain high, leading to a significant cooling in investment demand. Overall, economic stability promotes rigid demand for housing, but investment demand is more constrained by policies and credit conditions.

The government continues its stabilization strategy, addressing through land supply, stamp duties, and loan regulations in three key areas:
- Land Supply: In the second half of 2025, 4,725 units were launched, with nearly 9,800 units for the full year, maintaining high supply to stabilize prices.
- Stamp Duty Policies: The Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreign buyers remains at 60%, starting at 20% for Singaporean citizens' second homes. From March, the ABSD remission period for developer projects is extended by 6–12 months.
- Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD): Starting in July, the holding period is restored to 4 years, with rates increased by 4 percentage points across all tiers to prevent short-term speculation.
- Loan Regulations: The Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) remains at 55%, with a minimum interest rate of 4%, maintaining strict credit standards.

AIAIGAnswer

The policy mix results in 'one hot, one cold':
- New projects benefit from increased supply and flexible pricing by developers, leading to active transactions;
- The secondary market is affected by high SSD, ABSD, and loan pressures, resulting in longer transaction cycles and increased bargaining space;
- By curbing speculation and increasing supply, the government aims to restore the market to a rational and affordable structure.

AIAIGAnswer

The core of the policy lies in 'stabilizing growth and preventing bubbles'. The government emphasizes the social aspect of real estate over pure investment, using supply expansion and stable tax burdens to maintain market balance and prevent rapid price increases. The Singapore model demonstrates a typical 'structural cooling' approach—curbing speculation, protecting genuine demand, and sustaining long-term health.

AIAIGAnswer

In the third quarter of 2025, new project sales reached 3,238 units, a year-on-year increase of 174%; in October alone, 2,424 units were transacted, setting a new high for the year. The Core Central Region (CCR) sold 894 units, the highest quarterly sales in 15 years. The RCR and OCR regions contributed more than half of the transactions, indicating that mid-range and mass-market projects have become the main drivers.

AIAIGAnswer

Prices increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with non-landed properties in CCR rising by 2.4% and OCR by 1.0%. Developers adopted a 'total price pricing' strategy, setting most unit types below S$2 million to attract upgraders and first-time homebuyers. Some projects, such as Skye at Holland and Penrith, achieved sell-out rates of over 90% upon launch.

AIAIGAnswer

Low interest rate expectations, stable employment, ample government land supply, and developer promotions collectively drove the release of demand. Consumers believe the Singapore market has long-term value preservation attributes, leading to high home-buying willingness. Developers further stimulated buying interest with flexible pricing and promotional schemes (such as renovation subsidies and deferred payment options).

AIAIGAnswer

In October, only 753 second-hand private homes were transacted, a month-on-month decrease of 35.3%, hitting a 16-month low. Resale HDB flats also dropped to their lowest point since 2020, falling 38.4% month-on-month, with prices down 0.6%. Buyer hesitation, diversion to new projects, and loan pressure collectively contributed to the market's weakness.

AIAIGAnswer

The overall second-hand market has shifted to a buyer's market, with sellers generally needing to lower their psychological price expectations by about 5% to close deals. Luxury properties in core areas saw fewer transactions due to tax burdens and cooling investment sentiment; mid- and outer-ring projects still have rigid demand support, but the room for price negotiation has significantly widened.

AIAIGAnswer

High inventory (approximately 56,000 unsold private homes) and ample new project supply have led to extended transaction cycles, with listing periods generally exceeding three months. The focus of real estate transactions has shifted from the 'era of rushing to buy homes' to the 'era of price comparison', with buyers having more information and stronger bargaining power.

AIAIGAnswer

Foreign buyers accounted for only about 1.3% of new launches in the first three quarters of 2025, a significant drop from 4–7% in 2018–2021. In the resale market, the foreign share was only 1.4%. The high ABSD rate of up to 60% has almost eliminated short-term investors, and market dominance has returned to local buyers.

AIAIGAnswer

Singapore is seen as an Asian 'asset safe haven,' attracting high-net-worth individuals seeking capital security and identity planning. Some buyers prefer to pay high taxes or first apply for permanent residency to lower the tax rate. U.S. buyers are exempt from ABSD due to the free trade agreement, accounting for nearly half of foreign buyers.

AIAIGAnswer

They focus on investing in high-end projects in core areas (such as Skye at Holland, One Marina Gardens), with unit prices mostly around S$5 million. Their home-buying purposes are mainly for asset allocation, children's education, and long-term residence, rather than short-term speculation. The main buyers come from the United States, Malaysia, China, and India, among others.

AIAIGAnswer

The market is shifting from a seller's to a buyer's market. Ample supply and higher interest rates have slowed the pace of transactions, giving buyers more choices. Competition among new projects has intensified, with developers using discounts and promotions to maintain sales momentum; the secondary market is entering a period of price rebalancing.

AIAIGAnswer

In 2025, Singapore's property market demonstrates a 'structurally healthy adjustment': macro stability, strict policies, and cautious capital. New projects remain hot, the secondary market is under pressure, foreign investment is shrinking, and local demand supports stability. Singapore's property market has entered a new phase of rationality and sustainable development.

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