Thailand's Q3 2025 Residential Market: Recovery or Cooling?

This article revolves around a core issue: Is the Thai residential market in Q3 2025 'recovering and warming up,' or has it already entered a new bull market? At the same time, are Chinese buyers in this cycle 'temporarily holding back' or systematically exiting?

Based on data from REIC and other official and authoritative sources, several key conclusions can be drawn:

1. Q3 is a policy-driven 'recovery,' not a full bull market.
- With the combined effects of policies such as "reducing transfer fees and mortgage registration fees to 0.01%," "easing LTV," and "maintaining relatively low interest rates," there was a significant quarter-on-quarter rebound in residential transfers and housing loans in Q3.
- However, looking at the cumulative first three quarters of 2025, the number of residential transfers and transaction amounts are still negative year-on-year, indicating that overall purchasing power has not fully recovered.

2. Local rigid and improvement demand is awakening, but the pace is cautious.
- Properties under 1 million baht for "first-time rigid demand" are moving the fastest, and second-hand homes in the 5–7.5 million baht range for improvement are also starting to grow, showing that local families are indeed being "pushed" by policies and developer promotions.
- But first-time homebuyers overall remain very cautious, with "more viewing, less buying" still being the main trend.

3. Foreign buyers show 'volume up, price down,' with Chinese buyers continuing to exit.
- The number of condos bought by foreigners increased slightly year-on-year, but the total amount dropped significantly, indicating a change in customer structure: buying smaller and cheaper units, rather than a collapse in overall demand.
- The number and amount of purchases by mainland Chinese buyers are continuously declining; they remain the largest group, but their lead is narrowing rapidly, with buyers from Taiwan, Myanmar, and others "filling the gap."

4. Regional level: Bangkok stable with growth, Pattaya adjusting, Chiang Mai undergoing deep rebalancing.
- Bangkok relies on local self-use and diverse foreign capital support, with a relatively smooth recovery pace;
- Pattaya/Chonburi are more affected by changes in tourism and Russian/Chinese customer sources, in a phase of "finding a new balance point";
- Chiang Mai has shifted from a market highly dependent on Chinese buyers to a new pattern where diverse buyers from Myanmar, the US, Europe, and others coexist.

In summary: This is a 'cautious recovery' driven by policies and prices, not the start of a full bull market. For investors, it is more suitable for "selective positioning" rather than blindly chasing gains.

According to REIC's statistics for Q3 2025, "everything is going up" is not an emotional judgment but is supported by clear data:

1. National residential property transfer data (quarter-on-quarter)
- Number of transfers: 84,397 units, up +9.1% quarter-on-quarter.
- Transaction value: 226.166 billion baht, up +7.7% quarter-on-quarter.

This indicates that, driven by fee reductions, promotions, and improved credit conditions, both transaction volume and value are rising, representing "real volume growth" rather than growth solely from price increases.

2. Breakdown by product type: houses vs. condos
- Houses/low-rise residences:
- Units: 57,581 units, up +6.7% quarter-on-quarter.
- Value: 164.06 billion baht, up +4.7% quarter-on-quarter.
- Condos:
- Units: 26,816 units, up +14.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- Value: 62.106 billion baht, up +16.4% quarter-on-quarter.

It can be seen that:
- Low-rise residences remain the absolute mainstay, but growth is relatively "steady";
- Condo transactions show significantly faster growth, related to price discounts and the return of foreign buyers and local small-unit self-use demand.

3. Housing loan issuance situation
- New housing loans issued in Q3 were approximately 146.8 billion baht, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of nearly +9.5%.
- The growth in loans aligns with the increase in transactions, indicating that it is not solely supported by "all-cash investors" but that banks, developers, and homebuyers are all 'returning to the table', and the credit transmission chain is starting to function again.

Summary: From a single quarter perspective in Q3, "transaction volume", "transaction value", and "loans" are all rising together, reflecting a relatively comprehensive short-term recovery rather than a "optical illusion" from partial data.

When we extend the time dimension from a single quarter to the cumulative first three quarters of 2025 (Q1–Q3), we uncover a key reality:

> Q3 did see a 'recovery', but the overall first three quarters still show a 'negative' trend.

1. Cumulative national residential transfer data (Q1–Q3 2025 vs. same period)
- Number of transfers: 227,106 units, down 9.3% year-on-year.
- Transaction value: approximately 6,177.68 billion baht, down 12.4% year-on-year.

This means:
- Even though Q3 alone boosted transactions, the 'pit' from the first two quarters hasn't been fully filled;
- From an annual perspective, the market is still recovering old debts, not setting new highs.

2. Cumulative performance breakdown by product type
- Villas/low-rise housing:
- Units: 155,125, down 7.3% year-on-year.
- Value: 4,463.09 billion baht, down 9.4% year-on-year.
- Condominiums:
- Units: 71,991, down 13.3% year-on-year.
- Value: 1,714.58 billion baht, down 19.3% year-on-year, a larger decline.

Interpretation:
- Low-rise housing, primarily for local owner-occupation, is less affected by the withdrawal of foreign buyers and reduced investment, so the decline is kept in single digits;
- Condominiums heavily rely on investment and foreign buyers, and post-pandemic factors like interest rates, exchange rates, and restrictions on Chinese capital outflows have led to the slowest recovery and largest decline.

3. 'More viewing, less buying' remains the market's main theme
- Developer feedback: Viewing numbers are significantly higher than the same period last year, but the conversion rate to sales has limited recovery;
- First-time homebuyers are very sensitive to prices, interest rates, and employment expectations; until economic confidence fully recovers, they prefer to wait and see for a few more quarters rather than take on long-term debt easily.

Conclusion: From an annual perspective, the Thai residential market in 2025 is still in a 'cautious recovery phase', with the positive data in Q3 being more of a 'phased repair' rather than a complete reversal trend.

To support economic growth and prevent the real estate chain from becoming a source of systemic risk, the Thai government has introduced multiple sets of 'Quick Big Win' measures, which can be viewed from two levels:

1. Policy tools directly targeting real estate
- Reduction of transfer fees and mortgage registration fees to 0.01% (within specific price ranges): Significantly lowers transaction taxes, particularly favorable for low-priced and mid-range owner-occupied homes.
- Relaxation of LTV (Loan-to-Value) restrictions for mortgages: Increases the loan-to-value ratio and eases restrictions on 'second and third properties', to some extent releasing leverage space for rigid demand and improvement needs.
- Maintenance of relatively low policy interest rates: Although rates have risen from the extremely low levels during the pandemic, they remain in a range that balances inflation and growth, avoiding excessive mortgage interest from squeezing household cash flow.

2. Policies that indirectly stimulate real estate demand through macro and consumer-side measures
- 'Per capita subsidy Plus' type consumption subsidies: Similar to consumption vouchers or co-payment programs, stimulating household spending on daily consumption and tourism, improving corporate revenue and employment expectations.
- Tax deductions for tourism-related expenses: Providing income tax benefits for domestic tourism consumption, encouraging middle- and high-income families to increase travel and spending, indirectly boosting attention on tourist cities and vacation properties.
- Accelerated government budget expenditures and clean energy project investments: Injecting funds into infrastructure and new energy projects, driving employment and residential demand in related areas.
- Household non-performing debt AMC and loan restructuring mechanisms: Establishing specialized AMCs to 'package' and handle non-performing household debts, while promoting banks to restructure loans for some families, alleviating default pressures.
- Support measures for SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises): Easing funding pressures on SMEs, stabilizing employment, and supporting future home purchasing capacity from the income side.

The common goal of this series of policies is: to quickly push 'money' and 'confidence' back into the real economy and household balance sheets, allowing the sentiment of 'daring to spend', 'daring to borrow', and 'daring to buy a home' to return.

In Q3 2025, the performance of foreign buyers in the Thai condominium market can be summarized in four words: "volume up, price down".

1. Overall data: number of units up, value down
- Foreign individual condominium transfers: 3,844 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately +2.3%.
- Corresponding transfer value: about 15.378 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year decrease of –17.2%.

This means:
- Foreigners bought more units than the same period last year, indicating that "foreign buyers have not collectively disappeared from the Thai market";
- However, the total value has significantly decreased, and combined with unit price and area data, it can be concluded:
> Foreign buyers overall shifted to purchasing cheaper, smaller-sized products, rather than a market-wide price collapse.

2. Important structural changes: decline in the proportion of mid-to-high-priced and investment-type funds
- In the pre-pandemic cycle, a large amount of foreign capital (especially from China) was concentrated in mid-to-high-priced condominiums in Bangkok's CBD and popular coastal cities;
- In the current cycle, new and taking-over buyers tend to prefer:
- Smaller units with lower unit/total prices;
- Assets for self-use or "light asset holding", rather than high-leverage, bulk investments.

3. New sources of buyers fill in, but average spending per customer is more restrained
- Buyers from Taiwan, Myanmar, and some Western countries have increased, with overall average spending per customer being more moderate compared to the previous era of "large Chinese orders";
- Some groups (such as Myanmar buyers) prefer "value preservation, safety, simplicity" in small-sized assets, rather than pursuing high-leverage, high-return models.

Therefore, the essence of "volume up, price down" is: a change in the structure of foreign buyers, not a collapse in demand. For developers, sales speed may improve, but the ability to recoup funds per project and profit margins need to be managed more carefully.

From consecutive quarterly data and the policy environment, Chinese buyers in the Thai property market are indeed undergoing a 'continuous downgrading' process, rather than short-term fluctuations. The main reasons can be understood from three dimensions: 'capital side, psychological side, and policy side':

1. Capital Side: Capital Outflow and Exchange Rate Constraints
- China has relatively strict regulations and quota limits on individual foreign investments and foreign exchange purchases, making large-scale, bulk overseas purchases unrealistic;
- The periodic depreciation of the RMB against major currencies has made overseas assets more expensive in local currency terms, reducing the cost-effectiveness of buying property with exchanged currency;
- The domestic real estate and stock markets are also deleveraging and restructuring, making it difficult to sustain the model of 'selling domestic property + leveraging to buy overseas' that many relied on.

2. Psychological Side: Lowered Expectations for Overseas Real Estate Investment
- Post-pandemic, motivations for global travel, studying abroad, and immigration have changed, with Chinese families showing a relative contraction in the tendency for 'long-term overseas settlement', shifting more to a wait-and-see approach;
- Combined with local rental increases and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand, the actual investment returns may not be significantly better than domestic financial products, leading some pure investors to exit;
- Individual safety incidents and news about scam compounds in recent years have also weakened long-term trust in Thailand among some families at the public opinion level.

3. Policy Side: Joint Impact of Domestic and Host Country Policies
- China's stricter scrutiny of foreign exchange and cross-border funds makes it harder for 'large-sum property purchase funds for non-essential purposes' to be smoothly deployed;
- Although Thailand is generally friendly to foreign property purchases, changes in the pace of certain policies (such as long-term visa thresholds, adjustments to visa-on-arrival/visa-free policies) can also affect the timing of purchase decisions;
- Some Chinese buyers have realized that buying property does not automatically equate to obtaining long-term stable residency rights, leading them to reassess the complexity of 'property-based immigration'.

4. Structural Evolution: From 'Main Player' to 'Important Member'
- Currently, Chinese buyers still rank first among foreign buyers in Thailand, but their share and average transaction price have been declining continuously, indicating a gradual shift from absolute dominance to being an 'important member' among many sources;
- The market is transitioning from a 'single large faucet' to 'multiple small pipes', requiring developers to comprehensively restructure marketing and product design.

Therefore, the 'exit of Chinese buyers' is not simply an emotional narrative but the result of multiple factors including macroeconomics, regulation, and psychology, making it difficult to return to the scale of the previous golden period in the short term.

As the capital and economic core, Bangkok remains a "steady anchor" in this round of recovery, with characteristics that can be summarized as: resilient transactions, moderate prices, and structural adjustments.

1. Demand Structure: Driven by both local owner-occupiers and diverse foreign capital
- Local side:
- In Bangkok and its surrounding areas, first-time homebuyers and upgraders are reconsidering "getting on the property ladder" or "trading up" under policy stimulus, especially near rail transit lines and employment centers;
- Small-sized units and apartment projects along new MRT/BTS lines benefit significantly.
- Foreign capital side:
- After China's exit, buyers from Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Europe, and the U.S. have increased their share, buying more rationally and diversely;
- Bangkok remains the most concentrated area for foreign buyers, accounting for about 40% of foreign property purchases nationwide.

2. Price and Supply: Moderate recovery rather than sharp increases
- Prices for high-quality projects in core areas have seen slight increases or remained firm, supported by supply contraction and location scarcity;
- Prices in suburban and mid-to-low-end apartments are more about "stabilization," with developers willing to offer discounts and incentives for faster sales rather than blindly raising prices;
- In the first half of 2025, new construction starts and project launches have significantly decreased, with developers focusing on clearing inventory → this creates room for future price stability or even slow increases.

3. Implications for Investors (especially from a long-term allocation perspective)
- If the goal is stable cash flow and long-term holding, small-sized commuter properties in mature areas and along rail transit lines in Bangkok still offer high fundamental safety margins;
- The space for short-term speculative "pre-sale flipping" has significantly narrowed, as policies and financial environments do not encourage high-leverage short-term speculation;
- For holders of RMB/USD, it is important to comprehensively consider exchange rate fluctuations and Thai baht asset pricing, making it more suitable for phased investments rather than one-time heavy positions.

Summary: In this cycle, Bangkok resembles more of a "slow-bull core asset market": transaction recovery, non-frenzied prices, and healthier structure, making it friendly to long-term capital.

Chonburi Province, where Pattaya is located, is Thailand's second-largest condominium market concentrated with foreign buyers, and its performance is highly representative:

1. Tourism + industrial dual attributes prevent a 'hard landing' in fundamentals
- Tourism side: Pattaya remains a traditional beach resort, with returning tourists from Russia, South Korea, China, India, etc., helping to support short-term rental and self-use demand;
- Industrial side: Chonburi is an important part of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), with industrial parks, ports, etc., bringing stable local employment and residential demand.

2. Pain from changes in foreign buyer structure
- The retreat of Chinese buyers has increased the pressure to sell off sea-view projects previously targeted at Chinese group purchases;
- Russian buyers surged after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, forming a small peak in the first two years, but the heat has subsided due to exchange rates and capital restrictions;
- Other sources (India, Middle East, Europe, America) are growing, but the overall volume is still difficult to fully absorb the peak demand from the previous rounds of Chinese and Russian buyers.

3. Local and regional demand to some extent 'fills the gap'
- Bangkok residents buying holiday condos or second homes in Pattaya, as well as self-use demand from middle-class families working in the EEC, provide a stable foundation for some projects;
- After prices have declined somewhat, there are 'bargain' opportunities in some better-quality condos and low-rise residences, with an increase in the proportion of self-use + vacation buyers.

Overall, Pattaya/Chonburi is currently in the stage of: 'Foreign investment cools down → Demand structure reshapes → Selecting projects and locations'. For investors, rather than fantasizing about a repeat of the previous foreign-driven surge, a more realistic strategy is:
- Focus on projects with excellent locations and limited supply;
- Conservatively evaluate rental and occupancy rates, not setting short-term rental income expectations too high;
- Place more emphasis on long-term self-use/retirement value rather than purely chasing capital gains.

Chiang Mai is a very noteworthy sample city in this round of structural adjustments in the Thai real estate market, undergoing a deep transformation from 'high dependence on Chinese buyers' to 'coexistence of diverse customer sources':

1. Past: High dependence on Chinese buyers
- In previous cycles, Chinese buyers accounted for over half of foreign buyers in Chiang Mai's condominium market, with some projects even exceeding 70%;
- Driving factors include:
- Climate and lifestyle suitable for retirement and vacation;
- Children's education (international schools) and short-term living needs;
- Convenient transportation and cultural proximity to places like Yunnan.

2. Present: Significant contraction in Chinese buyers, rise of diverse customer sources
- Around 2025, the number of Chinese buyers purchasing properties in Chiang Mai saw a decline of over 30%, with their market share dropping from 'absolute dominance' to 'relatively important';
- Concurrently, Myanmar and American buyers showed significant growth:
- Myanmar: Affected by domestic political situations and natural disasters, many middle-class and wealthy families view Chiang Mai as a 'safe second home';
- United States: With the expansion of the U.S. consulate, more American citizens are working and living long-term in Chiang Mai, increasing demand for mid-to-high-end residences and villas;
- Additionally, buyers from European countries such as Italy and the Netherlands have started to appear; although the volume is small, it reflects a broadening of customer sources.

3. Market realities: Declining sales + high inventory + mismatch in unit structure
- In the first half of 2025, new home sales in Chiang Mai decreased significantly year-on-year, with inventory absorption cycles lasting dozens of months, forcing developers to sharply reduce new project launches;
- The earlier large number of 'small-area, multiple-unit investment condos' designed for Chinese investors faced difficulties in absorption after the retreat of Chinese capital;
- Meanwhile, overseas customers with actual purchasing power (from Myanmar, the U.S., and Europe) prefer larger, more comfortable villas or high-quality condos.

4. Long-term significance: From a single story to a composite story
- Chiang Mai is shifting from 'one story (Chinese investment)' to 'multiple overlapping stories (refuge, retirement, remote work, long-term diplomatic postings, education, etc.)';
- From a risk management perspective, this diversified demand is more sustainable than a single country's boom, but short-term adjustments in both price and volume are inevitable.

For investors, if you value mid-to-long-term living experience and asset security, rather than short-term speculation, Chiang Mai, after completing price adjustments, may become one of the most resilient investment targets in Northern Thailand.

If we were to give a brief definition of the current round of recovery in the Thai residential market, it can be summarized as:

> "This is a rebound, not a bull market; it's a period of structural restructuring, not a full-blown boom."

1. From a macro perspective: Policies are effective, recovery is established, but the level is limited
- Q3 and projected Q4 data indicate that policy stimulus has pulled the market from a 'contraction state' back to a 'moderate expansion' range;
- However, the cumulative annual total may still be lower than 2024, indicating that this is more like a 'repair after hitting bottom' rather than the start of a new upward trend.

2. From a structural perspective: Local rigid demand/improvement and diverse foreign capital are shaping it together
- Local rigid demand and improvement are the 'roots' of this recovery, but they are highly sensitive to prices and interest rates;
- Foreign capital has shifted from a flood from China alone to small streams from multiple countries, making the overall situation healthier, but also meaning developers must engage in more refined market and product positioning.

3. Three practical suggestions for investors
- (1) In terms of city and region selection:
- Prioritize long-term asset safety and liquidity → focus on Bangkok's core areas/areas along rail transit lines;
- If prioritizing vacation experience and medium- to long-term self-use → consider 'quality assets at discounted prices' in prime locations in Pattaya and mature areas with good infrastructure in Chiang Mai;
- (2) In terms of product and price range:
- Avoid projects with obvious oversupply that rely entirely on short-term rental income logic;
- Prioritize unit types and projects that 'locals are also happy to live in,' letting local demand serve as your safety net for future exits.
- (3) In terms of timing and capital management:
- Do not view 2025 as the 'last chance to get on board,' but rather as a 'range where you can start to invest in batches';
- Control leverage, relying mainly on own funds or low to moderate leverage, and incorporate fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, and the rental market into stress tests.

In conclusion: The Thai property market is in the mid-stage of transitioning from policy support to structural clearing. For Chinese investors, this is a period that requires more professional judgment and greater patience—the profits to be made come more from 'choosing the right city, the right product, and the right timing,' rather than simply relying on the era of broad-based monetary easing.