Thailand's Q3 2025 Residential Market: Recovery or Cooling?
The Thai government has driven a significant rebound in residential transactions and loans in Q3 2025 by reducing transfer and mortgage registration fees to 0.01%, relaxing LTV, and maintaining relatively low interest rates. However, looking at the cumulative data for the first three quarters, the overall market remains in a 'cautious recovery,' with slower recovery particularly in segments with high proportions of condominiums and investors. Meanwhile, the structure of foreign buyers is rapidly reshaping: Chinese buyers are continuously exiting, while buyers from regions like Taiwan and Myanmar are filling the gap, with Bangkok, Pattaya, and Chiang Mai playing different roles in this cycle.
What is the overall conclusion for the Thai residential market in Q3 2025? What core issue is this article discussing?
Based on data from REIC and other official and authoritative sources, several key conclusions can be drawn:
1. Q3 is a policy-driven 'recovery,' not a full bull market.
- With the combined effects of policies such as "reducing transfer fees and mortgage registration fees to 0.01%," "easing LTV," and "maintaining relatively low interest rates," there was a significant quarter-on-quarter rebound in residential transfers and housing loans in Q3.
- However, looking at the cumulative first three quarters of 2025, the number of residential transfers and transaction amounts are still negative year-on-year, indicating that overall purchasing power has not fully recovered.
2. Local rigid and improvement demand is awakening, but the pace is cautious.
- Properties under 1 million baht for "first-time rigid demand" are moving the fastest, and second-hand homes in the 5–7.5 million baht range for improvement are also starting to grow, showing that local families are indeed being "pushed" by policies and developer promotions.
- But first-time homebuyers overall remain very cautious, with "more viewing, less buying" still being the main trend.
3. Foreign buyers show 'volume up, price down,' with Chinese buyers continuing to exit.
- The number of condos bought by foreigners increased slightly year-on-year, but the total amount dropped significantly, indicating a change in customer structure: buying smaller and cheaper units, rather than a collapse in overall demand.
- The number and amount of purchases by mainland Chinese buyers are continuously declining; they remain the largest group, but their lead is narrowing rapidly, with buyers from Taiwan, Myanmar, and others "filling the gap."
4. Regional level: Bangkok stable with growth, Pattaya adjusting, Chiang Mai undergoing deep rebalancing.
- Bangkok relies on local self-use and diverse foreign capital support, with a relatively smooth recovery pace;
- Pattaya/Chonburi are more affected by changes in tourism and Russian/Chinese customer sources, in a phase of "finding a new balance point";
- Chiang Mai has shifted from a market highly dependent on Chinese buyers to a new pattern where diverse buyers from Myanmar, the US, Europe, and others coexist.
In summary: This is a 'cautious recovery' driven by policies and prices, not the start of a full bull market. For investors, it is more suitable for "selective positioning" rather than blindly chasing gains.
