AIAIG观点
2025年11月13日
2025 Latest Deposit Interest Rates Summary and Discussion (Part 1)
Focusing on current and fixed deposit interest rates and macro policies (including exchange rates) from early 2025 to the present, and systematically evaluating their impact and strategic recommendations on real estate, rent, and study abroad costs/trends in Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Question
What is the scope and core issues of this research?
AIAIGAnswer
Covering Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore, with a time frame from early 2025 to the present. Core issues: 1) The latest levels and changes in demand deposit and 1-year fixed deposit interest rates; 2) Monetary policy orientations and their linkages with exchange rates; 3) Transmission effects on real estate prices/mortgages, rental markets, and study abroad costs; 4) Actionable strategies for cross-border investments and household decisions.
Question
How are the methods and definitions set?
AIAIGAnswer
Primarily based on official and mainstream institutional definitions, uniformly broken down into: bank-side 'actionable reference rates' (demand deposit/1-year fixed deposit), central bank/regulatory policy context, exchange rate and inflation environment, three application pathways (real estate/rent/study abroad) impacts, and providing cross-country comparisons and strategic highlights. The answer is structured with key points, retaining essential information and magnitudes.
Question
🇯🇵 Japan: What are the practical reference rates for current/deposit accounts?
AIAIGAnswer
Current/Ordinary deposits: Mainstream banks and online banks generally offer around 0.2%, with some digital banks' promotional current accounts reaching about 0.4%. 1-year fixed deposits: After increases, major banks mostly range from 0.125% to 0.3%+, with some individual banks still lower. Overall, rates remain relatively low internationally.
Question
🇯🇵 Japan: How is the central bank and macroeconomic environment? What are the characteristics of the exchange rate?
AIAIGAnswer
After exiting negative interest rates in 2025 and raising short-term policy rates to near 0.5%, Japan has maintained a wait-and-see approach, aiming to balance inflation and growth. Driven by domestic and foreign interest rate differentials and risk appetite, the yen has been generally weak throughout the year with periodic fluctuations; import inflation has risen but remains moderate overall.
Question
🇯🇵 Japan: What are the impacts on real estate, rent, and studying abroad?
AIAIGAnswer
Real estate: Fixed mortgage costs have increased but moderately, with demand in core urban areas remaining resilient. Rent: Rents in major cities continue to rise, with growth rates slowing after reaching high levels. Studying abroad: The weak yen reduces the local currency costs for international students; inflation and rising rents offset some of the exchange rate benefits, but overall cost-effectiveness has improved.
Question
🇹🇭 Thailand: What is the practical reference for current/deposit interest rates?
AIAIGAnswer
Current: Major commercial banks generally around 0.25%. Fixed deposit: Common rates for 3–12 months are approximately 0.75%–1.10% (tiered by bank and amount). Overall rates are low, reflecting a loose monetary environment and low inflation.
Question
🇹🇭 Thailand: What is the latest situation with policy interest rates and exchange rates?
AIAIGAnswer
The policy interest rate remains around 1.5% after multiple cuts, aimed at countering slowing growth and low inflation. In 2025, the Thai baht strengthened periodically driven by improvements in the current account and capital inflows, but authorities are concerned about the impact of an overly strong currency on exports and tourism, and are using verbal guidance and tools to curb excessive volatility.
Question
🇹🇭 Thailand: What are the impacts on real estate, rent, and studying abroad?
AIAIGAnswer
Real estate: Low interest rates ease mortgage burdens, with stable market volume and moderate prices, but regional differences are evident. Rent: High-end rentals in prime locations and foreign demand drive slight increases, while mid-range rents remain generally stable. Studying abroad: A stronger baht slightly increases foreign currency budgets, but low inflation and friendly living costs keep overall cost-effectiveness relatively high.
Question
🇻🇳 Vietnam: What are the practical reference rates for demand/time deposits?
AIAIGAnswer
Demand deposits: State-owned major banks typically offer around 0.1%. 1-year time deposits: Listed rates at mainstream banks are mostly in the range of 4.6%–4.9%, with higher rates occasionally available through promotions or online channels. Overall, these rates are higher than in other countries in the region.
Question
🇻🇳 Vietnam: What are the key characteristics of monetary policy and exchange rates?
AIAIGAnswer
The policy orientation focuses on stabilizing growth, with window guidance promoting 'stable deposits and lower loans'. The Vietnamese dong depreciated slightly in 2025, but remained generally stable after timely central bank intervention; inflation is controlled within the target range, creating room for easing.
Question
🇻🇳 Vietnam: What are the impacts on real estate, rents, and studying abroad?
AIAIGAnswer
Real estate: The implementation of new laws has significantly boosted sentiment, with Hanoi leading the rise and Ho Chi Minh City bottoming out; financing conditions have improved but disparities remain. Rents: Serviced apartments and CBD areas in first-tier core districts have stabilized slightly, with average returns declining temporarily. Studying abroad: Overall costs remain low, and exchange rate impacts on foreign students' budgets are moderate.
Question
🇸🇬 Singapore: What are the practical reference rates for current/deposit accounts?
AIAIGAnswer
Current account: Base interest rates are extremely low (around 0.05% for traditional savings), requiring the use of bonus accounts to enhance overall returns. 1-year fixed deposit: Major banks' reference rates for 2025 are approximately 1.6%–3% (varies significantly by amount and channel, with higher rates during promotional periods).
Question
🇸🇬 Singapore: How is the policy framework and exchange rate performance?
AIAIGAnswer
MAS's exchange rate-based framework (S$NEER) maintains a mild neutral stance after inflation has subsided, avoiding excessive tightening; the Singapore dollar appreciates moderately against major currencies, curbing imported inflation but exerting some pressure on export and tourism price competitiveness.
Question
🇸🇬 Singapore: What are the impacts on real estate, rent, and studying abroad?
AIAIGAnswer
Real estate: Long-standing measures like ABSD/TDSR and increased supply lead to high-price mild fluctuations; the logic for owner-occupation and long-term allocation remains robust. Rent: Driven by new supply, it transitions from high levels to low growth or periodic adjustments. Studying abroad: A strong Singapore dollar and high rent result in overall higher study budgets, but education quality and returns remain attractive.
Question
What are the key points for comparing interest rates and exchange rates across the four countries?
AIAIGAnswer
Interest rate aspect: Japan has ultra-low rates, Thailand has low rates, Vietnam has medium-high rates, Singapore has low to medium rates but mainly focuses on structured products. Exchange rate aspect: The yen is relatively weak, the Thai baht is periodically strong, the Vietnamese dong is moderately controllable, and the Singapore dollar is moderately strong. This determines the differences in the pattern of 'local currency deposit returns - foreign currency purchasing power - imported inflation' across the countries.
Question
What are the conclusions from the cross-country comparison of real estate and rents?
AIAIGAnswer
Real estate: Japan and Singapore have stronger price resilience but lower yields; Vietnam is in a policy repair period, with significant differentiation but high elasticity; Thailand has stable volume and moderate prices, with rent-to-price ratios still attractive in the region. Rents: Singapore's rents are high and stabilizing, Japan's core areas are seeing slower growth; Thailand's premium sectors are experiencing slight increases; Vietnam's rents are still in a repair period, with yields under short-term pressure.
Question
What is the comprehensive impact on study abroad budgets and choices?
AIAIGAnswer
The weak yen enhances the cost-effectiveness of studying in Japan; the strong Thai baht slightly increases the budget for studying in Thailand, but low inflation absorbs some of the pressure; Vietnam has overall low costs with mild exchange rate effects; Singapore has high tuition and rent costs, with a strong Singapore dollar, requiring more adequate scholarship and budget planning.
Question
Practical Strategy Checklist for Investment and Allocation (Cross-Country Comparison)
AIAIGAnswer
1) Cash and Fixed Deposits: Japan/Singapore are suitable for liquidity management using 'reward accounts + short-term deposit promotions'; Vietnam can moderately utilize 1-year high-interest fixed deposits; Thailand is primarily low-interest, with cash management focusing on fund safety and multi-currency diversification. 2) Loans and Mortgages: In Japan and Singapore, try to lock in medium- to short-term fixed rates to avoid further interest rate hikes; in Thailand, take advantage of low-interest windows to optimize mortgages; in Vietnam, prioritize core areas in first-tier cities and projects with certainty amid differentiation. 3) Currency and Exchange Rates: For those with income in RMB or USD, studying/allocating in Japan offers periodic exchange rate 'discounts'; going to Singapore requires guarding against sustained appreciation of the Singapore dollar; for Vietnam and Thailand, focus on periodic local currency fluctuations and hedging tools.
Question
Combination Suggestions for Real Estate and Leasing
AIAIGAnswer
Japan/Singapore: Primarily for self-occupation or long-term holding, pursuing stable cash flow and asset preservation; Vietnam: Seize structural opportunities after legal repairs and supply easing, strictly selecting cities/locations and developer qualifications; Thailand: Stable returns from long-term rental demand in prime locations and tourism recovery, focusing on rental yield and operational capabilities.
Question
Detailed Arrangements for Study Abroad and Family Budgets
AIAIGAnswer
Japan: Utilize the period of weak yen to lock in some tuition/housing costs; Singapore: Book dormitories and shared rentals 1-2 semesters in advance, combined with university scholarships and grants; Thailand/Vietnam: Under the advantages of low inflation and low living costs, allocate more budget to professional and language training.
Question
Visualization and Data Annotation (How to Implement Charts)
AIAIGAnswer
It is recommended to draw four types of charts: 1) Time series of demand deposit/1-year fixed deposit interest rates (comparison across countries); 2) Local currency to USD/RMB exchange rate index; 3) Quarterly trends in private residential property prices and rental indices; 4) Scatter plot of typical city rent-to-price ratios. Production specifications: unify quarterly frequency, annotate data sources and update times, and include chart notes explaining policy events.
Question
Applicable Boundaries and Subsequent Maintenance Recommendations for This Report
AIAIGAnswer
There are time lags and structural differences between interest rates/exchange rates and the housing market/rentals; cross-country comparisons require attention to statistical caliber differences. It is recommended to update interest rates and exchange rates monthly, and review housing prices and rentals quarterly. For the policy level, promptly supplement when major meetings or bills are implemented.
