2025 Latest Deposit Interest Rates Summary and Discussion (Part 2)

Question

What is the research scope, timeframe, and methodology of this report?

AIAIGAnswer

• Country Scope: Malaysia (MY), Philippines (PH), Indonesia (ID), Cambodia (KH).
• Timeframe: Early 2025 to present (based on information up to November 2025).
• Interest Rate Methodology: Focus on local currency denominated demand/savings deposit rates and term deposit rates (primarily 12-month) at listed or mainstream average levels, prioritizing publicly available information from central banks and leading commercial banks for retail deposits.
• Analysis Dimensions: Macro policies (monetary policy, inflation, exchange rates), real estate (prices/transactions/inventory), rents (yields and differentiation), study abroad costs (impact of inflation and exchange rates on living expenses/tuition fees).

• Overall Interest Rate Trend: Influenced by declining inflation and slowing growth, the four countries show varying degrees of moderate easing/declining interest rates:
- MY: Policy rates remain neutral to accommodative; retail term deposits mostly around ~2%.
- PH: After high inflation, began cutting rates, 1Y term deposits ~4%+, demand deposits about ~1%.
- ID: After multiple rate cuts in 2025, retail term deposits have dropped significantly, 1Y mostly 3%–4%.
- KH: High dollarization, term deposits around 4%–5%, demand deposits low; overall interest rates have declined compared to 2024.
• Macro Policy Stance: Stabilizing prices → creating room for growth stabilization; stable exchange rates are a key constraint for rate cuts.

• Real Estate: Interest rates affect mortgage costs and discount rates → impacting housing affordability, valuations, and transactions; inventory and structural supply determine price elasticity.
• Rents: Depend on supply and demand and employment, with interest rates indirectly influencing through economic and home-buying substitution effects; when short-term supply is ample, rent increases are limited.
• Study Abroad Costs: Driven by inflation and exchange rates; low local inflation and stable exchange rates against major foreign currencies → more controllable living expenses and tuition fees for international students when converted.

• Current/Savings: Annual interest rates for personal current accounts at major banks are commonly <1% (around 0.5%–0.9%).
• Fixed (12M): Approximately 2.0%–2.4% is the common listed range, with some promotional offers slightly higher; overall, it is slightly lower or flat compared to 2024.
• Policy Linkage: In the context of mild inflation and moderate growth, policy interest rates remain neutral to accommodative; retail fixed deposits thus stay in a low range.

• Low inflation + low interest rates → Mortgage costs are relatively friendly, but excess inventory over the years in high-end apartments still suppresses price increases.
• Housing Prices: Nationwide, overall moderate and divergent; new projects in core urban areas are cautiously launched, with price reductions for volume being more common.
• Rents: Ample supply → National apartment gross rental yield is around 5%, with Kuala Lumpur's core areas having a yield slightly below the national average due to higher base property prices.

• Mild inflation + relatively stable exchange rate → Living expenses for international students remain within a manageable range; overall costs in the past year are similar to or slightly lower than the previous year.
• Universities and Rentals: Rent increases are moderate; shared rentals and suburban apartments still offer good value for money.

• Demand/Savings: Mainstream level around ~1%.
• Time Deposit (12M): At the beginning of the year around 4.2%, gradually decreasing to ~4%+ during the year due to policy; significantly lower compared to the high inflation period in 2023.
• Policy Pace: After inflation fell near the lower target range, the central bank initiated gradual interest rate cuts, providing room for bank-side interest rates to decline.

• Property Prices and Transactions: In the previous high-interest phase, demand was suppressed, with rising inventory and vacancy; after interest rate cuts in 2025, signs of stabilization strengthened, but inventory pressure still limits price increases.
• Rent and Yield: National residential gross yield ~5%, but regional differentiation is significant: rents in core business districts are more stable, while bargaining power is stronger in supply-concentrated bay areas.

• Inflation falling to low levels + exchange rate volatility converging → living expenses and accommodation costs tend to stabilize;
• Tuition: Overall moderate increases, but relatively controllable compared to inflation; total cost in foreign currency budget is roughly the same as the previous year.

• Demand/Savings: Annual interest for small to medium accounts is generally very low or close to 0, while large savings can see ~2%–3%.
• Time Deposits (12M): After multiple interest rate cuts, mainstream personal time deposits are around 3%–4%; a significant decline compared to 2024.
• Policy Pace: The central bank adopts aggressive easing to stabilize growth, with inflation at the lower end of the target range providing room for rate cuts.

• Housing Prices: Over the past year, almost zero growth, with some high-end apartments only slightly rising; rate cuts help transaction recovery precede price increases.
• Stimulus Policies: Housing-related tax cuts/subsidies improve affordability for first-time buyers;
• Rents and Yields: In areas like Jakarta/Bali, gross returns commonly 5%–6%, which are competitive in the region.

• Moderate inflation + mild currency depreciation within the year → foreign currency-denominated students experience marginal decrease in actual costs (same foreign currency can exchange for more local currency).
• Accommodation and Living: Rents in core cities stable with slight increases, but with overall mild price levels, students' total monthly expenses remain flat or slightly lower compared to last year.

• High financial dollarization: Deposits are mostly denominated in USD/riel, with retail interest rates sensitive to USD interest rates.
• Demand/savings: Generally very low (0%–0.5%).
• Time deposits (12M): Declined compared to 2024 to the ~4%–5% range, with some small and medium institutions offering higher rates to attract deposits.

• Policy orientation: Emphasizes exchange rate and price stability, with interest rate tools focusing on liquidity and reserves; inflation has quickly declined from early highs.
• Real estate: Moderate recovery driven by tourism and foreign capital inflows, mainly focused on destocking; Phnom Penh and surrounding provinces lead the rise, with apartment clearances and price-for-volume strategies coexisting.
• Rents and yields: Phnom Penh apartments commonly have gross returns of ~7%, attractive in Asia; occupancy rates in high-end/core areas improve faster.

• Moderate prices + USD peg → Living costs in USD are relatively stable;
• Tuition and accommodation: Low base with limited increases, total cost growth is minimal; second- and third-tier cities offer outstanding cost-effectiveness.

• Demand Deposits: Generally very low in the four countries, mostly in the 0–1% range.
• Term Deposits (12M) Relative Levels (from high to low, roughly): KH (~4%–5%) ≥ PH (~4%+) > ID (~3%–4%) > MY (~2%–2.4%).
• Trends: Except for MY maintaining low and stable levels, PH/ID have experienced rate cuts → retail term deposits moderately declining; KH follows market conditions as US dollar interest rates peak and fall.

• Price Elasticity: Inventory and structural supply determine elasticity: PH has high inventory and vacancy → limited price increases; MY has excess high-end apartments → trading price for volume; ID's rate cuts stimulate volume first, then price; KH sees moderate recovery with the return of external demand.
• Rental Yield: Roughly KH ~7% > ID ~5%–6% ≥ PH ~5% ≥ MY ~5% (lower in core areas); but net returns need to be assessed comprehensively considering occupancy rates/taxes/maintenance.

• MY/PH/ID: Falling inflation + more stable exchange rates → controllable living expenses; ID's moderate depreciation is more favorable for foreign currency students.
• KH: Most expenses are in US dollars, low exchange rate risk; overall low base, limited increases → high cost-effectiveness.

• Anchor with cash flow: In an environment of falling interest rates but economic divergence, prioritize screening for stable tenant sources (employment/expatriate/tourism) and high occupancy rates in niche products.
• Inventory reduction and profit concessions: The price-for-volume phase in PH and MY is a bargaining window; ID may see volume transactions prioritized with price lag in the early stages of interest rate cuts.
• Compliance and taxes: Under KH's high gross returns, specifically calculate taxes, maintenance, and management to achieve net profit; differences in foreign purchase policies require checking the latest terms item by item.

• KH/ID: Seize the recovery in tourism and expatriates for high-end/short-term rentals and villa-type products;
• PH: In supply-concentrated areas, achieve higher occupancy rates through differentiated furnishing and services;
• MY: Choose projects with better location/commute/community amenities to improve conversion and renewal rates.

• Currency hedging: If tuition/rent is in USD, prioritize staggered currency exchange and budget buffers;
• Location trade-offs: MY/PH urban clusters offer convenient living and rich international curricula; ID provides improved cost-effectiveness in living expenses and cultural experiences; KH stands out for low base costs and USD pricing stability.

• Retail interest rates have interbank quotation differences and promotional period fluctuations, and should be based on the current announcements of the specific opening bank.
• Policy pace may adjust rapidly due to external shocks (energy, food, exchange rates), requiring quarterly review.
• Urban differentiation is significant: real estate and rents should use the city/district as the minimum decision unit, avoiding substitution with national averages.

1) Recent central bank meeting minutes and inflation/employment data;
2) Target city new property sales rate/vacancy rate/tenant structure;
3) Target school tuition currency/increase mechanism and accommodation location information;
4) Bank actual annualized return (taxes/compound interest/early withdrawal terms).

• Create a interest rate—mortgage sensitivity summary table (impact of down payment ratio/interest rate ±100bp on monthly payments).
• Establish rental sample tracking by city (listing price, transaction price, vacancy rate), updated monthly.
• Study abroad budget table: simulate 12–24 months of cash flow under inflation and exchange rate scenarios.

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2025 Latest Deposit Interest Rates Summary and Discussion (Part 1)