AIAIG观点
2025年11月13日
2025 Latest Deposit Interest Rates Summary and Discussion (Part 2)
Covers the overview of current and fixed deposit interest rates (in local currencies) for Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Cambodia (from early 2025 to present), and systematically analyzes the impact and outlook on real estate, rent, and study abroad costs in the context of macro policies, inflation, and exchange rates.
Question
What is the research scope, timeframe, and methodology of this report?
AIAIGAnswer
• Country Scope: Malaysia (MY), Philippines (PH), Indonesia (ID), Cambodia (KH).
• Timeframe: Early 2025 to present (based on information up to November 2025).
• Interest Rate Methodology: Focus on local currency denominated demand/savings deposit rates and term deposit rates (primarily 12-month) at listed or mainstream average levels, prioritizing publicly available information from central banks and leading commercial banks for retail deposits.
• Analysis Dimensions: Macro policies (monetary policy, inflation, exchange rates), real estate (prices/transactions/inventory), rents (yields and differentiation), study abroad costs (impact of inflation and exchange rates on living expenses/tuition fees).
• Timeframe: Early 2025 to present (based on information up to November 2025).
• Interest Rate Methodology: Focus on local currency denominated demand/savings deposit rates and term deposit rates (primarily 12-month) at listed or mainstream average levels, prioritizing publicly available information from central banks and leading commercial banks for retail deposits.
• Analysis Dimensions: Macro policies (monetary policy, inflation, exchange rates), real estate (prices/transactions/inventory), rents (yields and differentiation), study abroad costs (impact of inflation and exchange rates on living expenses/tuition fees).
Question
What is the overall trend of interest rates and policies in the four Southeast Asian countries in 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• Overall Interest Rate Trend: Influenced by declining inflation and slowing growth, the four countries show varying degrees of moderate easing/declining interest rates:
- MY: Policy rates remain neutral to accommodative; retail term deposits mostly around ~2%.
- PH: After high inflation, began cutting rates, 1Y term deposits ~4%+, demand deposits about ~1%.
- ID: After multiple rate cuts in 2025, retail term deposits have dropped significantly, 1Y mostly 3%–4%.
- KH: High dollarization, term deposits around 4%–5%, demand deposits low; overall interest rates have declined compared to 2024.
• Macro Policy Stance: Stabilizing prices → creating room for growth stabilization; stable exchange rates are a key constraint for rate cuts.
- MY: Policy rates remain neutral to accommodative; retail term deposits mostly around ~2%.
- PH: After high inflation, began cutting rates, 1Y term deposits ~4%+, demand deposits about ~1%.
- ID: After multiple rate cuts in 2025, retail term deposits have dropped significantly, 1Y mostly 3%–4%.
- KH: High dollarization, term deposits around 4%–5%, demand deposits low; overall interest rates have declined compared to 2024.
• Macro Policy Stance: Stabilizing prices → creating room for growth stabilization; stable exchange rates are a key constraint for rate cuts.
Question
Why are these changes highly relevant to real estate, rents, and study abroad costs?
AIAIGAnswer
• Real Estate: Interest rates affect mortgage costs and discount rates → impacting housing affordability, valuations, and transactions; inventory and structural supply determine price elasticity.
• Rents: Depend on supply and demand and employment, with interest rates indirectly influencing through economic and home-buying substitution effects; when short-term supply is ample, rent increases are limited.
• Study Abroad Costs: Driven by inflation and exchange rates; low local inflation and stable exchange rates against major foreign currencies → more controllable living expenses and tuition fees for international students when converted.
• Rents: Depend on supply and demand and employment, with interest rates indirectly influencing through economic and home-buying substitution effects; when short-term supply is ample, rent increases are limited.
• Study Abroad Costs: Driven by inflation and exchange rates; low local inflation and stable exchange rates against major foreign currencies → more controllable living expenses and tuition fees for international students when converted.
Question
🇲🇾 Malaysia (MY): What is the latest trend for current/fixed deposits in 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• Current/Savings: Annual interest rates for personal current accounts at major banks are commonly <1% (around 0.5%–0.9%).
• Fixed (12M): Approximately 2.0%–2.4% is the common listed range, with some promotional offers slightly higher; overall, it is slightly lower or flat compared to 2024.
• Policy Linkage: In the context of mild inflation and moderate growth, policy interest rates remain neutral to accommodative; retail fixed deposits thus stay in a low range.
• Fixed (12M): Approximately 2.0%–2.4% is the common listed range, with some promotional offers slightly higher; overall, it is slightly lower or flat compared to 2024.
• Policy Linkage: In the context of mild inflation and moderate growth, policy interest rates remain neutral to accommodative; retail fixed deposits thus stay in a low range.
Question
🇲🇾 How do Malaysia's macro policies, inflation, and exchange rates affect real estate and rents?
AIAIGAnswer
• Low inflation + low interest rates → Mortgage costs are relatively friendly, but excess inventory over the years in high-end apartments still suppresses price increases.
• Housing Prices: Nationwide, overall moderate and divergent; new projects in core urban areas are cautiously launched, with price reductions for volume being more common.
• Rents: Ample supply → National apartment gross rental yield is around 5%, with Kuala Lumpur's core areas having a yield slightly below the national average due to higher base property prices.
• Housing Prices: Nationwide, overall moderate and divergent; new projects in core urban areas are cautiously launched, with price reductions for volume being more common.
• Rents: Ample supply → National apartment gross rental yield is around 5%, with Kuala Lumpur's core areas having a yield slightly below the national average due to higher base property prices.
Question
🇲🇾 What are the implications of Malaysia for study abroad costs?
AIAIGAnswer
• Mild inflation + relatively stable exchange rate → Living expenses for international students remain within a manageable range; overall costs in the past year are similar to or slightly lower than the previous year.
• Universities and Rentals: Rent increases are moderate; shared rentals and suburban apartments still offer good value for money.
• Universities and Rentals: Rent increases are moderate; shared rentals and suburban apartments still offer good value for money.
Question
🇵🇭 Philippines (PH): What is the latest situation for demand/time deposits in 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• Demand/Savings: Mainstream level around ~1%.
• Time Deposit (12M): At the beginning of the year around 4.2%, gradually decreasing to ~4%+ during the year due to policy; significantly lower compared to the high inflation period in 2023.
• Policy Pace: After inflation fell near the lower target range, the central bank initiated gradual interest rate cuts, providing room for bank-side interest rates to decline.
• Time Deposit (12M): At the beginning of the year around 4.2%, gradually decreasing to ~4%+ during the year due to policy; significantly lower compared to the high inflation period in 2023.
• Policy Pace: After inflation fell near the lower target range, the central bank initiated gradual interest rate cuts, providing room for bank-side interest rates to decline.
Question
🇵🇭 How has Philippine real estate and rent performed during the transition from high to low interest rates?
AIAIGAnswer
• Property Prices and Transactions: In the previous high-interest phase, demand was suppressed, with rising inventory and vacancy; after interest rate cuts in 2025, signs of stabilization strengthened, but inventory pressure still limits price increases.
• Rent and Yield: National residential gross yield ~5%, but regional differentiation is significant: rents in core business districts are more stable, while bargaining power is stronger in supply-concentrated bay areas.
• Rent and Yield: National residential gross yield ~5%, but regional differentiation is significant: rents in core business districts are more stable, while bargaining power is stronger in supply-concentrated bay areas.
Question
🇵🇭 What insights does the Philippines offer on study abroad costs?
AIAIGAnswer
• Inflation falling to low levels + exchange rate volatility converging → living expenses and accommodation costs tend to stabilize;
• Tuition: Overall moderate increases, but relatively controllable compared to inflation; total cost in foreign currency budget is roughly the same as the previous year.
• Tuition: Overall moderate increases, but relatively controllable compared to inflation; total cost in foreign currency budget is roughly the same as the previous year.
Question
🇮🇩 Indonesia (ID): What is the latest situation for demand/time deposits in 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• Demand/Savings: Annual interest for small to medium accounts is generally very low or close to 0, while large savings can see ~2%–3%.
• Time Deposits (12M): After multiple interest rate cuts, mainstream personal time deposits are around 3%–4%; a significant decline compared to 2024.
• Policy Pace: The central bank adopts aggressive easing to stabilize growth, with inflation at the lower end of the target range providing room for rate cuts.
• Time Deposits (12M): After multiple interest rate cuts, mainstream personal time deposits are around 3%–4%; a significant decline compared to 2024.
• Policy Pace: The central bank adopts aggressive easing to stabilize growth, with inflation at the lower end of the target range providing room for rate cuts.
Question
🇮🇩 What are the key observations for the real estate and rental market under Indonesia's easing cycle?
AIAIGAnswer
• Housing Prices: Over the past year, almost zero growth, with some high-end apartments only slightly rising; rate cuts help transaction recovery precede price increases.
• Stimulus Policies: Housing-related tax cuts/subsidies improve affordability for first-time buyers;
• Rents and Yields: In areas like Jakarta/Bali, gross returns commonly 5%–6%, which are competitive in the region.
• Stimulus Policies: Housing-related tax cuts/subsidies improve affordability for first-time buyers;
• Rents and Yields: In areas like Jakarta/Bali, gross returns commonly 5%–6%, which are competitive in the region.
Question
🇮🇩 What are the impacts of Indonesia on study abroad costs and foreign residency?
AIAIGAnswer
• Moderate inflation + mild currency depreciation within the year → foreign currency-denominated students experience marginal decrease in actual costs (same foreign currency can exchange for more local currency).
• Accommodation and Living: Rents in core cities stable with slight increases, but with overall mild price levels, students' total monthly expenses remain flat or slightly lower compared to last year.
• Accommodation and Living: Rents in core cities stable with slight increases, but with overall mild price levels, students' total monthly expenses remain flat or slightly lower compared to last year.
Question
🇰🇭 Cambodia (KH): What is the latest situation for demand/time deposits in 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• High financial dollarization: Deposits are mostly denominated in USD/riel, with retail interest rates sensitive to USD interest rates.
• Demand/savings: Generally very low (0%–0.5%).
• Time deposits (12M): Declined compared to 2024 to the ~4%–5% range, with some small and medium institutions offering higher rates to attract deposits.
• Demand/savings: Generally very low (0%–0.5%).
• Time deposits (12M): Declined compared to 2024 to the ~4%–5% range, with some small and medium institutions offering higher rates to attract deposits.
Question
🇰🇭 How does Cambodia's macro stability framework transmit to real estate and rents?
AIAIGAnswer
• Policy orientation: Emphasizes exchange rate and price stability, with interest rate tools focusing on liquidity and reserves; inflation has quickly declined from early highs.
• Real estate: Moderate recovery driven by tourism and foreign capital inflows, mainly focused on destocking; Phnom Penh and surrounding provinces lead the rise, with apartment clearances and price-for-volume strategies coexisting.
• Rents and yields: Phnom Penh apartments commonly have gross returns of ~7%, attractive in Asia; occupancy rates in high-end/core areas improve faster.
• Real estate: Moderate recovery driven by tourism and foreign capital inflows, mainly focused on destocking; Phnom Penh and surrounding provinces lead the rise, with apartment clearances and price-for-volume strategies coexisting.
• Rents and yields: Phnom Penh apartments commonly have gross returns of ~7%, attractive in Asia; occupancy rates in high-end/core areas improve faster.
Question
🇰🇭 What is the core assessment of study abroad costs in Cambodia?
AIAIGAnswer
• Moderate prices + USD peg → Living costs in USD are relatively stable;
• Tuition and accommodation: Low base with limited increases, total cost growth is minimal; second- and third-tier cities offer outstanding cost-effectiveness.
• Tuition and accommodation: Low base with limited increases, total cost growth is minimal; second- and third-tier cities offer outstanding cost-effectiveness.
Question
Comparison and Trends of Interest Rates in Four Countries: Who Will Be 'Loose' and Who 'Tight' in 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• Demand Deposits: Generally very low in the four countries, mostly in the 0–1% range.
• Term Deposits (12M) Relative Levels (from high to low, roughly): KH (~4%–5%) ≥ PH (~4%+) > ID (~3%–4%) > MY (~2%–2.4%).
• Trends: Except for MY maintaining low and stable levels, PH/ID have experienced rate cuts → retail term deposits moderately declining; KH follows market conditions as US dollar interest rates peak and fall.
• Term Deposits (12M) Relative Levels (from high to low, roughly): KH (~4%–5%) ≥ PH (~4%+) > ID (~3%–4%) > MY (~2%–2.4%).
• Trends: Except for MY maintaining low and stable levels, PH/ID have experienced rate cuts → retail term deposits moderately declining; KH follows market conditions as US dollar interest rates peak and fall.
Question
What Are the Key Points of Cross-Country Differences in Real Estate and Rent?
AIAIGAnswer
• Price Elasticity: Inventory and structural supply determine elasticity: PH has high inventory and vacancy → limited price increases; MY has excess high-end apartments → trading price for volume; ID's rate cuts stimulate volume first, then price; KH sees moderate recovery with the return of external demand.
• Rental Yield: Roughly KH ~7% > ID ~5%–6% ≥ PH ~5% ≥ MY ~5% (lower in core areas); but net returns need to be assessed comprehensively considering occupancy rates/taxes/maintenance.
• Rental Yield: Roughly KH ~7% > ID ~5%–6% ≥ PH ~5% ≥ MY ~5% (lower in core areas); but net returns need to be assessed comprehensively considering occupancy rates/taxes/maintenance.
Question
How Does It Comprehensively Affect Study Abroad and Family Budgets?
AIAIGAnswer
• MY/PH/ID: Falling inflation + more stable exchange rates → controllable living expenses; ID's moderate depreciation is more favorable for foreign currency students.
• KH: Most expenses are in US dollars, low exchange rate risk; overall low base, limited increases → high cost-effectiveness.
• KH: Most expenses are in US dollars, low exchange rate risk; overall low base, limited increases → high cost-effectiveness.
Question
For real estate investors: What are the strategic recommendations for 2025?
AIAIGAnswer
• Anchor with cash flow: In an environment of falling interest rates but economic divergence, prioritize screening for stable tenant sources (employment/expatriate/tourism) and high occupancy rates in niche products.
• Inventory reduction and profit concessions: The price-for-volume phase in PH and MY is a bargaining window; ID may see volume transactions prioritized with price lag in the early stages of interest rate cuts.
• Compliance and taxes: Under KH's high gross returns, specifically calculate taxes, maintenance, and management to achieve net profit; differences in foreign purchase policies require checking the latest terms item by item.
• Inventory reduction and profit concessions: The price-for-volume phase in PH and MY is a bargaining window; ID may see volume transactions prioritized with price lag in the early stages of interest rate cuts.
• Compliance and taxes: Under KH's high gross returns, specifically calculate taxes, maintenance, and management to achieve net profit; differences in foreign purchase policies require checking the latest terms item by item.
Question
For rental operators: How to allocate across different markets?
AIAIGAnswer
• KH/ID: Seize the recovery in tourism and expatriates for high-end/short-term rentals and villa-type products;
• PH: In supply-concentrated areas, achieve higher occupancy rates through differentiated furnishing and services;
• MY: Choose projects with better location/commute/community amenities to improve conversion and renewal rates.
• PH: In supply-concentrated areas, achieve higher occupancy rates through differentiated furnishing and services;
• MY: Choose projects with better location/commute/community amenities to improve conversion and renewal rates.
Question
For families with students studying abroad: How to optimize budget and risk?
AIAIGAnswer
• Currency hedging: If tuition/rent is in USD, prioritize staggered currency exchange and budget buffers;
• Location trade-offs: MY/PH urban clusters offer convenient living and rich international curricula; ID provides improved cost-effectiveness in living expenses and cultural experiences; KH stands out for low base costs and USD pricing stability.
• Location trade-offs: MY/PH urban clusters offer convenient living and rich international curricula; ID provides improved cost-effectiveness in living expenses and cultural experiences; KH stands out for low base costs and USD pricing stability.
Question
What are the limitations of this report and recommendations for data updates?
AIAIGAnswer
• Retail interest rates have interbank quotation differences and promotional period fluctuations, and should be based on the current announcements of the specific opening bank.
• Policy pace may adjust rapidly due to external shocks (energy, food, exchange rates), requiring quarterly review.
• Urban differentiation is significant: real estate and rents should use the city/district as the minimum decision unit, avoiding substitution with national averages.
• Policy pace may adjust rapidly due to external shocks (energy, food, exchange rates), requiring quarterly review.
• Urban differentiation is significant: real estate and rents should use the city/district as the minimum decision unit, avoiding substitution with national averages.
Question
Quick Checklist (for Investment and Study Abroad Decision-Makers)
AIAIGAnswer
1) Recent central bank meeting minutes and inflation/employment data;
2) Target city new property sales rate/vacancy rate/tenant structure;
3) Target school tuition currency/increase mechanism and accommodation location information;
4) Bank actual annualized return (taxes/compound interest/early withdrawal terms).
2) Target city new property sales rate/vacancy rate/tenant structure;
3) Target school tuition currency/increase mechanism and accommodation location information;
4) Bank actual annualized return (taxes/compound interest/early withdrawal terms).
Question
Next Executable Actions (Optional)
AIAIGAnswer
• Create a interest rate—mortgage sensitivity summary table (impact of down payment ratio/interest rate ±100bp on monthly payments).
• Establish rental sample tracking by city (listing price, transaction price, vacancy rate), updated monthly.
• Study abroad budget table: simulate 12–24 months of cash flow under inflation and exchange rate scenarios.
• Establish rental sample tracking by city (listing price, transaction price, vacancy rate), updated monthly.
• Study abroad budget table: simulate 12–24 months of cash flow under inflation and exchange rate scenarios.
