AIAIG观点
2025年11月30日
AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report｜2025 Week 48 (Part 1): Latest Real Estate Policies and Overseas Home Buying Information in Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai
This issue focuses on key markets such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, and Dubai, sorting out the latest or ongoing real estate policies, home buying and tax rules, as well as residency and financial regulatory trends closely related to overseas home buying.
This issue is the AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report for Week 48 of 2025 (Part 1: Policy Focus), with the statistical period from November 24 to November 30. Overall, this week was not one with a cluster of "blockbuster new laws" being introduced, but several policy documents released in mid-November continued to develop: Vietnam's social housing and national housing fund supporting details were gradually released, Japan discussed recording buyers' nationalities in real estate registries, Dubai advanced the implementation of real estate tokenization regulations, while Malaysia and Indonesia maintained their existing approaches in taxes and interest rates, setting the tone for the 2026 real estate market.
This article organizes the policy information with the greatest impact on overseas homebuyers this week from six sections: Vietnam's housing fund and social housing entry thresholds, the latest progress in Japan's "nationality registration + security review" discussions, developments in Thailand's long-term leasing and foreign investment rules, the macro policy environment in Malaysia and Indonesia, and regulatory signals from Dubai regarding visas and real estate digitalization.
I. Vietnam: National Housing Fund and Social Housing Policy Enter the "Implementation Phase"
Vietnam officially issued a government decree on the establishment of the 'National Housing Fund' in late November, with the core objective of providing long-term, low-cost funding sources for large-scale social housing and worker dormitory construction. According to the decree framework, the central government will establish a National Housing Fund managed by the Ministry of Construction, while provinces and cities will simultaneously set up local housing funds. Funding sources include central fiscal allocations, local budgets, mandatory contributions from developers, and the issuance of some long-term bonds. The fund's expenditures are primarily used for: providing low-interest long-term loans for social housing projects, offering interest subsidies to eligible home-buying families, and supporting the renovation of old housing.
Complementing this, new regulations on social housing eligibility thresholds were announced in late October: the new income standards raise the monthly disposable income cap for single applicants to approximately 20 million Vietnamese dong and for family applicants to 40 million Vietnamese dong, significantly higher than the old standards, allowing more low- and middle-income wage earners to enter the 'social housing' policy pool. This means that in the coming years, the proportion of price-controlled policy housing in Vietnam's new supply will increase, and commercial developers must consider allocation ratios when acquiring land and planning.
For overseas investors, social housing itself is not a direct investment target in the short term, but it will serve as an 'anchor' for overall urban housing prices: on one hand, it alleviates housing pressure on low- and middle-income groups, reducing the risk of overall market overheating; on the other hand, commercial residential projects need to more clearly differentiate themselves from social housing in positioning and amenities, with high-quality projects near industrial parks and rail transit nodes potentially becoming more scarce due to the 'crowding out' effect of the supply structure.
Question
How will Vietnam's National Housing Fund and new social housing policies change the housing price structure in the coming years?
AIAIGAnswer
In the short term, the policy focus is on 'stabilizing prices rather than suppressing them,' and it will not directly cause a significant drop in market prices. However, as more social housing and worker dormitories are established in first- and second-tier industrial cities, the rigid demand group will no longer be forced to rush into the commercial housing market to buy properties, compressing the room for speculative price increases and significantly reducing the risk-reward ratio for high-leverage property speculation.
In the medium to long term, social housing provides a 'safety net' for low- to mid-end demand, which actually enhances the bargaining power of mid- to high-end, self-use improvement, and projects near industrial cores—because this part of the supply cannot be fully replaced by policy housing. For overseas investors, future property selection in Vietnam will require more consideration of: whether the project is close to large industrial parks and rail transit, whether it belongs to mid- to high-end residential areas in urban planning, and whether the social housing supply in the city is sufficient, to assess the relative elasticity of its prices and rents.
In the medium to long term, social housing provides a 'safety net' for low- to mid-end demand, which actually enhances the bargaining power of mid- to high-end, self-use improvement, and projects near industrial cores—because this part of the supply cannot be fully replaced by policy housing. For overseas investors, future property selection in Vietnam will require more consideration of: whether the project is close to large industrial parks and rail transit, whether it belongs to mid- to high-end residential areas in urban planning, and whether the social housing supply in the city is sufficient, to assess the relative elasticity of its prices and rents.
II. Japan: Discussing Recording Buyer Nationality in Real Estate Registration, Security Review Moves Towards "Refinement"
In late November, Japanese media and professional institutions continued to follow a noteworthy development: the Ministry of Justice and related departments are discussing adding a "nationality" field to the real estate registry to collect statistics and understand the situation of foreigners holding Japanese real estate. On November 25, a professional article aimed at foreign buyers clearly stated that the current focus of the discussion is "recording and statistics," rather than directly restricting purchases at this stage.
Prior to this, the new Prime Minister, Takaichi Sanae, had convened the first meeting related to "foreign policy," requiring various ministries to present a package of reform proposals involving foreign land, visas, and social security by 2026. Combined with recent discussions, it is possible to roughly discern Japan's regulatory path: first, grasp the actual situation by improving registration information (who bought how much property and where), and then introduce additional reviews or restrictions in specific sensitive areas, rather than imposing a blanket ban on all foreign buyers.
Currently, Japan maintains a highly open basic framework for foreign real estate purchases nationwide: non-residents can purchase land and buildings, and there is no additional "foreign buyer tax," which is also a key reason why cities like Tokyo, Osaka, and Sapporo continue to attract overseas funds. However, in the future, projects near Self-Defense Force bases, water sources, ports, and some tourist hotspots may face stricter use reviews and information disclosure obligations.
Question
Will recording 'nationality' in the registry quickly evolve into 'prohibiting foreigners from buying property'?
AIAIGAnswer
Based on currently available information, the greater likelihood is 'data first, regulation selectively advancing'. That is, the government's primary goal is to determine how much real estate is held by buyers of which nationalities, especially land near sensitive facilities or critical infrastructure. Only after the data is clear is it possible to introduce stricter land purchase review systems in a few areas.
For most ordinary residential and apartment projects, a nationwide purchase ban is unlikely in the short to medium term. However, for overseas buyers planning to invest in vacation homestays, rural farmland, coastal areas, and large tracts of mountainous land, it will be necessary to pay special attention to the evolution of new laws and local regulations in the future. Rather than worrying about 'sudden prohibition', a more practical strategy is to choose asset types that are transparent in information and have straightforward uses (such as long-term residence or ordinary rental), and collaborate with local professional institutions to ensure compliance.
For most ordinary residential and apartment projects, a nationwide purchase ban is unlikely in the short to medium term. However, for overseas buyers planning to invest in vacation homestays, rural farmland, coastal areas, and large tracts of mountainous land, it will be necessary to pay special attention to the evolution of new laws and local regulations in the future. Rather than worrying about 'sudden prohibition', a more practical strategy is to choose asset types that are transparent in information and have straightforward uses (such as long-term residence or ordinary rental), and collaborate with local professional institutions to ensure compliance.
3. Thailand: 99-Year Long-Term Lease and Foreign Ownership Ratio of Condominiums, Still in the Policy Game Period
This week, Thailand did not pass any new official legislation, but policy discussions surrounding "extending land lease terms for foreigners to 99 years" and "increasing the proportion of foreign ownership in condominiums" continue. Real estate industry associations and some large developers continue to lobby the government, hoping to pilot more relaxed foreign investment policies in specific areas such as the Eastern Economic Corridor and international tourist islands first, to secure the long-term residential needs of high-net-worth retirees and international corporate executives' families.
On the judicial front, the Supreme Court has previously clarified the rigid boundary of the current 30-year lease term cap: practices that bundle 30+30+30 years through structural design and include them in contracts may be deemed invalid in litigation. This objectively drives the legislature to introduce 99-year leases through explicit legal amendments, rather than relying on contractual tricks.
For investors by the end of 2025, the key judgment is that the policy is still in a "game and testing" phase, and it is not advisable to have excessive expectations regarding "ultra-long lease terms" before formal implementation. A more prudent approach is to evaluate project cash flows and exit paths based on existing mature rules (30-year lease term + clear renewal clauses), treating potential new policies like 99-year leases as "optional upside" rather than a baseline scenario.
Four, Malaysia: Unchanged Expectations of Rising Foreign Investment Tax Burden, Overall Mild Local Interest Rate Environment
In various macroeconomic reviews at the end of November, Malaysia was assessed by multiple institutions as the second-fastest growing economy in ASEAN for 2026, with the central bank expected to maintain the policy rate around 2.75% for a period to balance growth and inflation. This means that mortgage interest rates will remain relatively moderate in the short to medium term, benefiting local first-time and upgrade homebuyers.
For foreign investors, the previously announced policy direction to uniformly increase the stamp duty for foreign buyers' residential properties to 8% starting from 2026 shows no signs of reversal. This week, major real estate agencies and law firms have begun highlighting the time window of "completing transactions around 2025" in their explanatory materials for overseas clients, reminding foreign buyers interested in entering the Malaysian market to try to complete the transfer before the tax increase.
No new nationwide property taxes or rental taxes were introduced this week, but several state governments are internally discussing whether to raise the minimum purchase amount threshold for foreign buyers, aiming to lock foreign capital mainly into the mid-to-high-end apartment and villa markets and avoid direct competition with local rigid demand.
Five, Indonesia: Interest Rates Maintained, VAT Benefits Extended, Continuing to Support Low- and Middle-Priced Housing
The Central Bank of Indonesia has basically confirmed at its November regular meeting that it will not aggressively raise interest rates again at this stage, but will maintain a moderate interest rate level. Combined with the fiscal side continuing the value-added tax reduction policy for first-time low- and middle-priced housing, it continues to support the construction of 'affordable housing'. Previously, the government had clearly stated that it would provide a subsidy where part of the VAT is borne by the government for first-time homebuyers purchasing homes with a total price not exceeding a certain amount (for example, in the range of 500 million to 200 million Indonesian rupiah), and extend the policy timeline to around 2027.
The logic behind this combination of measures is similar in direction to Vietnam's social housing policy: by using both tax and interest rate tools, it supports middle- and low-income families in purchasing homes, stabilizes employment in the construction and real estate industries, while avoiding excessive subsidies for high-end investment properties.
For overseas investors, Indonesia remains a market primarily driven by 'industry + population', with policies more inclined towards industrial parks, data centers, logistics warehouses, and urban renewal projects, while residential incentives are mainly targeted at local residents.
Six, Dubai: Real Estate Tokenization and "Real Estate + Residency" Policies Continue to Release Open Signals
Dubai did not introduce any new traditional 'home-buying regulations' this week, but several developments in real estate digitization and long-term residency policies continue to solidify its position as a global capital 'transit hub'. By 2025, the Dubai Land Department has already implemented the world's first batch of real estate tokenization projects and issued 'tokenized property ownership certificates' for them, marking the beginning of a deep integration between blockchain and the traditional real estate registration system.
At the residency level, the long-term visa policy based on property purchases remains effective: property investors who meet certain financial thresholds can apply for long-term residency visas of 2 years, 5 years, or even 10 years, and can also apply for their spouses and children together. Several local developers continued to bundle 'property + golden visa' in their marketing campaigns in November to attract mid-to-high net worth clients from India, Russia, China, and Europe.
On the regulatory front, the revision of real estate regulations by the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) is still in the consultation process, with a focus on improving the details of lease registration, common property management, and mortgage registration, providing a predictable legal foundation for more REITs, private equity funds, and tokenized products in the future.
Question
As an overseas investor, what is the most important policy information this week that requires 'immediate action'?
AIAIGAnswer
From the perspectives of timeliness and operability, you can focus on three key things:
1) Malaysia's increase in stamp duty for foreigners to 8% starting in 2026 is almost certain. If you were already considering properties for personal use or investment in markets like Kuala Lumpur or Penang, you should make 'completing the transaction by 2025 or early 2026' a hard constraint in your timeline.
2) The implementation of Vietnam's social housing and national housing fund means that the price gap between high-end investment properties and mid-to-low-end policy-driven properties will become institutionalized. When selecting properties, pay more attention to 'whether the location is planned as a concentrated area for social housing' to avoid heavily investing in sectors that may face excessive future supply pressure and limited price appreciation.
3) Dubai's ongoing progress in real estate tokenization and long-term visas provides new possibilities for investors who 'do not want to buy an entire property at once but still want to allocate assets in Dubai'—in the future, you can start with small investments through REITs or tokenized products before deciding whether to move up to full property investments.
1) Malaysia's increase in stamp duty for foreigners to 8% starting in 2026 is almost certain. If you were already considering properties for personal use or investment in markets like Kuala Lumpur or Penang, you should make 'completing the transaction by 2025 or early 2026' a hard constraint in your timeline.
2) The implementation of Vietnam's social housing and national housing fund means that the price gap between high-end investment properties and mid-to-low-end policy-driven properties will become institutionalized. When selecting properties, pay more attention to 'whether the location is planned as a concentrated area for social housing' to avoid heavily investing in sectors that may face excessive future supply pressure and limited price appreciation.
3) Dubai's ongoing progress in real estate tokenization and long-term visas provides new possibilities for investors who 'do not want to buy an entire property at once but still want to allocate assets in Dubai'—in the future, you can start with small investments through REITs or tokenized products before deciding whether to move up to full property investments.
