This issue is the AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report for Week 48 of 2025 (Part 2: Trends), with the statistical period from November 24 to November 30. Unlike the previous part focusing on 'Policies and Regulations,' this part concentrates on answering four questions: first, what marginal changes have occurred in housing prices and transactions in Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai this week; second, how rents and returns are evolving in the late stages of high interest rates; third, how global and regional funds are being reallocated among different cities and asset types; fourth, what real estate securitization and tokenization mean for the future concept of 'buying a home.'
Overall, as 2025 draws to a close, global real estate investors have shifted from 'chasing high growth' to 'seeking high-quality cash flow and institutional security.' Southeast Asia continues to benefit from manufacturing relocation and demographic dividends, Japan performs steadily with institutional stability and low financing costs, while Dubai, under steady high prices, continues to attract cross-regional funds through innovative tools and residency policies.
1. Price and Trading: Southeast Asia 'Moderate Rise + Structural Differentiation', Dubai Continues High Volume
Southeast Asia as a whole continued the rhythm of 'moderate growth', but there were significant divergences among different cities. In Vietnam, data for the year continued to show that apartment prices and transaction volumes in Hanoi were clearly leading the nation. In previous quarterly statistics, the average price of apartments in Hanoi increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the number of transactions grew by nearly 50% year-on-year, while Ho Chi Minh City was in a state of 'low-level recovery', with both price and transaction growth rates far lower than those in the capital. In late November, in reports from securities firms and consultancies, an increasing number of institutions identified the 'Northern Vietnam manufacturing corridor + capital region upgrade' as the core driver of residential demand in Vietnam over the next 3–5 years.
In Thailand, the national residential price index has maintained a year-on-year growth rate in the range of 2–4% this year, with the increases for single-family homes and townhouses slightly higher than those for condominiums. High-end condominium prices in Bangkok's core areas saw slight increases, but large-scale projects in the suburbs relied more on promotions and installment payments to clear inventory, presenting an overall pattern of 'volume contraction with stable prices'. In resort cities like Phuket and Samui, the resale prices of villas and sea-view apartments, supported by Russian and European buyers, have accumulated gains of 30–40% over the past two years, but transactions are mainly concentrated among high-net-worth clientele.
Malaysia and Indonesia are primarily characterized by 'low single-digit growth'. High-quality condominium prices in Kuala Lumpur's core areas are expected to see a full-year increase of 3–5%, while Johor Bahru and Penang have strengthened due to industrial and transportation benefits. Residential prices in Jakarta and Surabaya are steadily rising with urban expansion, but the government's financial and tax support for mid- to low-priced housing has kept price growth moderate.
In Dubai, multiple year-end review articles pointed out that 2025 marked the sixth consecutive year of record-high transactions, with the total transaction value in the first half exceeding 400 billion dirhams and the number of transactions surpassing 90,000 units. Price increases for the year also remained in the mid-to-high single-digit range. Comments in late November generally positioned Dubai as a market that is 'at a high level but has not yet shown a clear turning point': high-end villas and luxury homes continue to be in short supply, mid-range condominium price increases are converging, and a large amount of capital from India, Europe, and within the region is still being allocated through a combination of off-plan and ready properties.
Question
Based on this week's news, which cities are most noteworthy in terms of 'momentum'?
AIAIGAnswer
Integrating this year's data and this week's institutional comments, cities with relatively strong momentum fall into three categories:
• The first category is growth-oriented cities driven by both 'industry and population', such as Hanoi and Bac Giang in Vietnam, where residential demand is structurally supported by manufacturing and infrastructure development.
• The second category is 'global capital hub' cities, like Dubai, which attract cross-regional funds through advantages in finance, shipping, and tax systems, with housing prices maintaining high volumes after multiple rounds of increases.
• The third category is 'tourism and second home' cities, such as parts of Phuket and Bali, favored by high-net-worth individuals from specific source countries, with high price elasticity but also greater volatility.
In contrast, cities that have completed a round of recovery and entered a 'mild steady state' (e.g., core areas of Bangkok, some sectors of Kuala Lumpur) are more suitable as 'cash flow-weighted' allocations rather than targets for explosive growth.
II. Rent and Yield: Slight Compression in Cash Flow Returns, but High-Quality Assets Remain Attractive
In the final stage of high interest rates, a notable change in overseas real estate is that housing prices have risen for several years in many cities, while rental growth has lagged relatively, leading to a slight decline in nominal rental yields compared to a few years ago.
Taking Malaysia as an example, the latest market research shows that the average gross rental yield for apartments in 2025 is around 5%, slightly lower than the 5.2–5.3% in 2023–2024. The reason is that apartment prices in some core areas have risen faster, while rents have stabilized after the post-pandemic recovery. However, compared to local fixed deposits and government bond yields, apartments in prime locations remain attractive.
The characteristic of Japan's residential market is 'low yield but stable cash flow.' The gross yield for single apartments in core areas of Tokyo and Osaka is generally in the 3–4% range, while in regional cities it can reach 5–6%, but this comes with the risk of population mobility and vacancy. In an ultra-low interest rate environment, such real estate cash flows still hold allocation value for long-term funds.
Dubai's rental returns remain at a medium to high level globally, with gross yields for many community apartments in the 5–7% range; high-end apartments and villas are slightly lower but compensated by capital appreciation. As prices continue to climb, yields in some areas have compressed compared to the highs of 2021–2022, but relative to the 2–3% yields in core European and American cities, Dubai still represents 'high return + high volatility.'
Question
Is it still worth buying overseas real estate in the context of slightly compressed yields?
AIAIGAnswer
The key is not 'whether the absolute yield is high or not,' but rather: first, whether it can generate stable cash flow at an acceptable risk level; second, whether this asset can play a 'risk diversification' role in your overall asset allocation.
For example, Japan's 3–4% rental yield may seem low, but when combined with low volatility, strong rule of law, and low financing costs, it remains a meaningful allocation for investors aiming for capital preservation and currency risk diversification. Conversely, in some high-yield but less transparent regulatory markets, even if the surface yield reaches 8–10%, considering legal risks, exchange rate risks, and exit difficulties, it may not be more cost-effective than a 4% project in Japan or Malaysia.
Therefore, when observing yields, it is recommended to also consider: whether the tenant structure is stable, the long-term population and industry trends of the city, and the volatility history of the local currency and policies, rather than just focusing on a single number.
III. Capital Flows: From "Single Market Betting" to "Regional Portfolio Allocation"
From recent institutional reports and news leads, it can be seen that global capital allocation in real estate is increasingly showing characteristics of "portfolio diversification and thematic focus".
On one hand, there is a clear logic of "industrial chain migration + real estate following" emerging within Southeast Asia: South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese companies investing in factories in Vietnam often have their executives and middle-class employees simultaneously purchasing or renting homes in cities such as Hanoi, Bac Ninh, and Ho Chi Minh City; Indonesia's new capital and surrounding industrial parks are also attracting long-term capital to deploy in industrial land and supporting residential properties.
On the other hand, cross-regional allocation is becoming more common—for example, high-net-worth individuals from India and Russia are buying high-end apartments and villas in Dubai, using them as an "anchor" for global assets and family security; meanwhile, they are deploying operational assets (such as hotels, apartments, warehouses, etc.) in Southeast Asia or Japan, using cash flow to hedge against price fluctuations.
For Chinese investors, the more common approach in the past was "single-market betting": concentrating purchases in Thailand at one stage, then in Japan or Dubai at another stage. From a risk management perspective, it is increasingly worth considering a "multi-market portfolio": for example, using part of the budget to allocate to growth assets in Vietnam or Indonesia, part to stable cash flow assets in Japan, and a small amount of funds to participate in high-volatility markets like Dubai or others to capture cyclical opportunities.
Question
If the total budget is limited, how can I combine several popular destinations?
AIAIGAnswer
You can use a relatively simple approach to break it down:
• First, determine a "safe base": If you value institutional stability and currency diversification, you can allocate part of the budget to Japan, or markets with good legal environments and low volatility (such as Singapore REITs, or some core area apartments in Malaysia).
• Next, determine a "growth allocation": Choose one or two markets with demographic and industrial dividends, such as Hanoi in Vietnam, suburban Jakarta in Indonesia, or industrial corridors, and allocate a small amount of growth assets within an acceptable risk range.
• Finally, determine a "flexible position": Use a small amount of funds for highly flexible markets like Dubai, which could be a whole property, REIT, or tokenized products, to capture cyclical growth opportunities.
With a limited total budget, you don't need to buy a whole property in every destination; you can use a combination of "whole property + securitized products": for example, buy one physical property in a familiar city, and then participate in other cities in small amounts through REITs, real estate funds, or tokenized shares.
IV. Securitization and Tokenization: The Cognitive Shift from "Buying a House" to "Buying a Share"
In this week's fintech news related to real estate, the most noteworthy development remains the progress in 'securitization and tokenization'.
The 'tokenized property ownership certificate' launched by the Dubai Land Department this year marks the first official recognition that a stable mapping relationship can be established between on-chain tokens and traditional real estate registration: developers divide an entire property into several digital shares, sell them through compliant platforms, and after the sale is completed, the land department issues a 'tokenized ownership certificate' for the project, confirming that token holders collectively enjoy the economic rights to the property. This lays the regulatory foundation for more real estate STOs (Security Token Offerings) and secondary market trading in the future.
In financial centers like Singapore, regulators are encouraging asset management companies to package assets such as office buildings, logistics warehouses, and data centers into divisible digital shares and issue them to qualified investors by clarifying digital securities regulatory rules. Some platforms targeting East Asian investors already allow participation in overseas property projects with thresholds ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand Singapore dollars.
Meanwhile, traditional REITs continue to expand in places like Singapore, Thailand, and Japan, with more REITs incorporating Southeast Asian assets (such as warehouses, shopping malls, hotels, and apartments) into their investment portfolios. Compared to directly buying property, these products are more mature in terms of information disclosure, dividend mechanisms, and liquidity, and they provide an indirect holding path for investors who 'do not want to be landlords themselves'.
Question
How should one choose between 'buying a whole property' and 'buying a share'?
AIAIGAnswer
You can consider it from three dimensions: control, liquidity, and effort investment.
• If you want a high degree of control over the property's renovation, rental methods, and future personal use arrangements, such as planning to live in it yourself, keeping it as a backup for your child's study abroad, or building a homestay brand, then 'buying a whole property' is more suitable, but it requires investing more time and effort in management.
• If you value 'buying real estate like buying stocks,' hoping for small, multiple investments and the ability to adjust positions at any time, then REITs or tokenized shares are a better fit: you cannot decide on the renovation or tenants of a single property, but you can enjoy higher liquidity and professional management.
• For many Chinese investors, a practical and feasible path is a 'hybrid model': buy 1–2 physical properties in the city you are most familiar with and where you have usage scenarios, while using a small amount of capital to access distant, hard-to-manage markets through securitized or tokenized products.
As the regulatory framework gradually becomes more complete, the meaning of 'buying a house' will no longer be limited to owning a physical property but can involve using different financial tools to create more flexible real estate exposure.
In summary, the market information for Week 48 of 2025 further reinforces several long-term trends:
• At the price level, Southeast Asia and Dubai still have upward momentum, but overall price increases are becoming more moderate, with intensified differentiation between cities and sectors;
• At the rent and yield level, nominal returns are generally slightly lower than pre-pandemic highs, but high-quality assets remain attractive against the backdrop of declining interest rates;
• At the capital flow level, global investors are shifting from "single-market bets" to "regional portfolio allocation," placing greater emphasis on systems and risk diversification;
• "Operational assets" such as industrial parks, logistics warehouses, data centers, and long-term rental apartments are continuously increasing their weight in asset allocation;
• Securitization and tokenization are gradually transforming real estate investment from a "heavy-asset, low-liquidity" category into one that can be "lightweight and diversified."
For AIAIG readers, what is more important is not predicting short-term prices, but rather finding their own positioning in these trends as early as possible: Are you more inclined towards stable cash flow as a "rent-collecting investor," or do you seek long-term growth as a "bettor on urban and industrial trends," or perhaps you aim to participate in global real estate in small amounts through digital tools? Different answers lead to completely different destinations, asset types, and tool combinations.
