AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 48 (Part 2): Global Housing Price Trends, Rental Yield, and Investment Strategy Analysis - AIAIG - AIAIG

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2025年11月30日

AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 48 (Part 2): Global Housing Price Trends, Rental Yield, and Investment Strategy Analysis

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a basis for major decision-making. Please make independent judgments and consult professional advisors when needed.

This issue organizes the latest trends in key markets such as Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai from four dimensions: price and transaction, rent and yield, changes in investor structure, and asset securitization and tokenization, and extracts observations of reference value for Chinese investors.

AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 48 (Part 2): Global Housing Price Trends, Rental Yield, and Investment Strategy Analysis

This issue is the AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report for Week 48 of 2025 (Part 2: Trends), with the statistical period from November 24 to November 30. Unlike the previous part focusing on 'Policies and Regulations,' this part concentrates on answering four questions: first, what marginal changes have occurred in housing prices and transactions in Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai this week; second, how rents and returns are evolving in the late stages of high interest rates; third, how global and regional funds are being reallocated among different cities and asset types; fourth, what real estate securitization and tokenization mean for the future concept of 'buying a home.'

Overall, as 2025 draws to a close, global real estate investors have shifted from 'chasing high growth' to 'seeking high-quality cash flow and institutional security.' Southeast Asia continues to benefit from manufacturing relocation and demographic dividends, Japan performs steadily with institutional stability and low financing costs, while Dubai, under steady high prices, continues to attract cross-regional funds through innovative tools and residency policies.

1. Price and Trading: Southeast Asia 'Moderate Rise + Structural Differentiation', Dubai Continues High Volume

Southeast Asia as a whole continued the rhythm of 'moderate growth', but there were significant divergences among different cities. In Vietnam, data for the year continued to show that apartment prices and transaction volumes in Hanoi were clearly leading the nation. In previous quarterly statistics, the average price of apartments in Hanoi increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the number of transactions grew by nearly 50% year-on-year, while Ho Chi Minh City was in a state of 'low-level recovery', with both price and transaction growth rates far lower than those in the capital. In late November, in reports from securities firms and consultancies, an increasing number of institutions identified the 'Northern Vietnam manufacturing corridor + capital region upgrade' as the core driver of residential demand in Vietnam over the next 3–5 years.

In Thailand, the national residential price index has maintained a year-on-year growth rate in the range of 2–4% this year, with the increases for single-family homes and townhouses slightly higher than those for condominiums. High-end condominium prices in Bangkok's core areas saw slight increases, but large-scale projects in the suburbs relied more on promotions and installment payments to clear inventory, presenting an overall pattern of 'volume contraction with stable prices'. In resort cities like Phuket and Samui, the resale prices of villas and sea-view apartments, supported by Russian and European buyers, have accumulated gains of 30–40% over the past two years, but transactions are mainly concentrated among high-net-worth clientele.

Malaysia and Indonesia are primarily characterized by 'low single-digit growth'. High-quality condominium prices in Kuala Lumpur's core areas are expected to see a full-year increase of 3–5%, while Johor Bahru and Penang have strengthened due to industrial and transportation benefits. Residential prices in Jakarta and Surabaya are steadily rising with urban expansion, but the government's financial and tax support for mid- to low-priced housing has kept price growth moderate.

In Dubai, multiple year-end review articles pointed out that 2025 marked the sixth consecutive year of record-high transactions, with the total transaction value in the first half exceeding 400 billion dirhams and the number of transactions surpassing 90,000 units. Price increases for the year also remained in the mid-to-high single-digit range. Comments in late November generally positioned Dubai as a market that is 'at a high level but has not yet shown a clear turning point': high-end villas and luxury homes continue to be in short supply, mid-range condominium price increases are converging, and a large amount of capital from India, Europe, and within the region is still being allocated through a combination of off-plan and ready properties.

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AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report | 2025 Week 48 (Part 2): Global Housing Price Trends, Rental Yield, and Investment Strategy Analysis

1. Price and Trading: Southeast Asia 'Moderate Rise + Structural Differentiation', Dubai Continues High Volume

II. Rent and Yield: Slight Compression in Cash Flow Returns, but High-Quality Assets Remain Attractive

III. Capital Flows: From "Single Market Betting" to "Regional Portfolio Allocation"

IV. Securitization and Tokenization: The Cognitive Shift from "Buying a House" to "Buying a Share"

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AIAIG Overseas Real Estate Investment Weekly Report｜2025 Week 48 (Part 1): Latest Real Estate Policies and Overseas Home Buying Information in Southeast Asia, Japan, and Dubai